Ceasefire

After three weeks of a major military campaign throughout Gaza, the Israel Govt. today annnounced a unilateral ceasefire. The Israeli Security Cabinet accepted the Egyptian proposal for a unilateral ceasefire during which further negotiations can occur. Hamas has set certain conditions for a ceasefire that Israel is not prepared to accept, for example a one-year term to the ceasefire and the immediate opening of the crossings without any means of monitoring them. Although PM Olmert declared that all Israel's goals have been met, this is not certain. The cessation of rocket fire into Israel depends on Hamas accepting and adhering to the ceasefire, but a Hamas spokesman in Turkey gave a press conference saying that Hamas will continue fighting until all IDF soldiers leave Gaza. However, it is not clear that he represents Hamas in Gaza and Israeli agencies suggest that Hamas having been hit so hard will need time to ascertain their situation and regroup.
Apart from generally destroying the infrastructure of Hamas the killing of Said Siam announced Friday was a major coup for the IDF. Siam was the No. 2 man of Hamas in Gaza and was the Head of Intelligence and the effective Minister of the Interior. He was a well-known and feared extremist who was responsible for the deaths of ca. 700 Fatah men when Hamas took over from Fatah in a bloody coup in 2007. Those who harbor the illusion that Hamas was elected democratically can ask any Fatah member what he thinks. In Ramallah there was rejoicing at Siam's death and many comments praised Israel for doing Allah's will. In fact it is rumored that Fatah collaborated with Israel in finding him hiding at his brother's house. If that is so it could affect Fatah's standing negatively among Palestinians as a collaborator of Israel.
The leadership of Hamas in Gaza has been significantly degraded and so they have sent representatives to negotiate with the Head of Intelligence in Egypt. This represents a change in policy of Hamas towards a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, at an Arab League meeting held in Doha, Qatar, the Head of Hamas in Damascus, Khaled Mashaal, was denouncing the Egyptians for negotiating with Israel and stating that Hamas will never agree to any terms with Israel. He may want to continue to fight on, but the Hamas leadership in Gaza are more pragmatic, they know that they are beaten. So there is a definite split in Hamas.
It is noteworthy that neither Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arab nor Pres. Abbas of the PA attended the hastily called meeting of the Arab League in Doha, although Pres. Ahmedinejad of Iran was there. This represents a true split in the Arab world, with the Sunni "moderates" versus the Sunni extremists allying with Shia Iran. Egypt preferred not to attend rather than have criticism heaped on it for trying to negotiate an indirect ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. It is irrational that these "rejectionists" prefer to see Hamas destroyed by IDF force than accept a ceasefire, but that is their extremist policy.
Meanwhile the Israeli triumvirate of PM Olmert, FM Livni and DM Barak although they all supported the ceasefire, are also showing signs of division. Each has to think of the upcoming election (that may be postponed) and their standing in their respective party. Livni has been criticized for not attending the recent UN Security Council meeting, where Secty of State Rice spoke. But, instead she rushed off to the US yesterday to sign a MoU with Rice that commits the US to share in the efforts to stop the smuggling of weapons and rockets from Iran via Sudan and Egypt into Gaza. There will be an international meeting at very high level in Sharm-el-Shiekh in Egypt today to discuss the situation.
So while there is a ceasefire, with Hamas showing signs of a split, if they do not accept the ceasefire and continue firing rockets into Israel, then the IDF will have no alternative but to continue to hit back.