Who won?
The election results represent a division in the Israeli electorate, between Kadima and Likud. But, things may not be as bad as they seem. Here are certain conclusions that can be drawn:
1. As of the morning after, the actual results give Kadima 29 seats and Likud 28, so Kadima seems to have won the election, barely, and that is a personal triumph for Tzipi Livni, who in the last few days came out fighting and went for the youth and the women's votes. Netanyahu tended to sit back, perhaps too complacently, and do little real electioneering, since all the polls had given him a victory for months. Not all the votes are counted yet, and when the Army votes are in, since they tend to be more right wing, Likud may even equal or pass Kadima. But, the predictions that a centrist party like Kadima would self-destruct have not come true, and Kadima seems to be here to stay.
2. Although Kadima is for now the biggest party in number of seats, the largest bloc is on the right. The clearest trend is the move to the right. The biggest loser is Labor and Ehud Barak with only 13 seats. Remember that Labor used to be the biggest party and ran Israel for most of its early history. But, now the left is decimated, with Meretz they received only 18 seats, and the Arab parties are down to 9 seats, so the total left is ca. 27. By contrast, the right has ca. 65, with Likud (28), Israel Beitanu (15), Shas (10), and three smaller right wing parties. The fact is that the main parties are now Kadima in the center and Likud on the right, and not Labor on the left.
3. It is important to compare these election results with those in the last Knesset: Kadima did not change, it was 29 seats and now is 29 again, so no change! But, Likud went from it's lowest result of 12 seats after Sharon left it and took many of its people with him to Kadima, and Likud now has more than doubled it's seats to 28. This is definitely a victory for Likud and Netanyahu.
4. The Israeli electoral system failed again, extreme proportional representation without any local representation obviously is unworkable, allowing two parties to claim victory, Kadima because it has the largest number of seats and Likud because it leads the largest bloc. Everyone, including the parties themselves, agree that the system needs changing, but will they actually do something about it once they are in office?
5. The big problem now is who will form a governing coalition. There are many options, Pres. Peres is not required to select the leader of the largest party to form the Government, so he could ask either Livni or Netanyahu to do so. Of the various possibilities, there could be a National Unity Government with all parties in it, and Livni and Netanyahu could share the PM position (this happened once before), but that is unlikely. Livni could form a center-left coalition with Labor-Meretz and Israel Beitanu giving a total of 61, a bare majority out of 120. But, Liberman, who expected to get up to 20 seats but still beat Labor, in his speech said that he wanted to join a right wing coalition. So it is most likely that Peres will ask Netanyahu to be PM and form a Govt. that would have a working majority of 65.
6. This result will no doubt upset many of those in the West who are obsessed with the mantra of "a two state solution with Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace." Very nice, but quite unrealistic for now. The Palestinians, as represented by both the PA or Hamas do not want to live in peace with a Jewish State, they don't want to recognize it, and don't want to accept its existence. That is one reason for the trend to the right, Israelis are fed up with giving up land (Lebanon, Gaza to Hamas, the West Bank to the PA) and being clobbered for it, and then being asked to give up more. We hope that a Netanyahu Government will make it clear, no more withdrawals, no more giving up land, unless and until the Palestinians change their attitudes completely. But, we are getting ahead of oursleves, the long, hard process of coalition building and horse trading is ahead and it may take weeks before the final result is known.
1. As of the morning after, the actual results give Kadima 29 seats and Likud 28, so Kadima seems to have won the election, barely, and that is a personal triumph for Tzipi Livni, who in the last few days came out fighting and went for the youth and the women's votes. Netanyahu tended to sit back, perhaps too complacently, and do little real electioneering, since all the polls had given him a victory for months. Not all the votes are counted yet, and when the Army votes are in, since they tend to be more right wing, Likud may even equal or pass Kadima. But, the predictions that a centrist party like Kadima would self-destruct have not come true, and Kadima seems to be here to stay.
2. Although Kadima is for now the biggest party in number of seats, the largest bloc is on the right. The clearest trend is the move to the right. The biggest loser is Labor and Ehud Barak with only 13 seats. Remember that Labor used to be the biggest party and ran Israel for most of its early history. But, now the left is decimated, with Meretz they received only 18 seats, and the Arab parties are down to 9 seats, so the total left is ca. 27. By contrast, the right has ca. 65, with Likud (28), Israel Beitanu (15), Shas (10), and three smaller right wing parties. The fact is that the main parties are now Kadima in the center and Likud on the right, and not Labor on the left.
3. It is important to compare these election results with those in the last Knesset: Kadima did not change, it was 29 seats and now is 29 again, so no change! But, Likud went from it's lowest result of 12 seats after Sharon left it and took many of its people with him to Kadima, and Likud now has more than doubled it's seats to 28. This is definitely a victory for Likud and Netanyahu.
4. The Israeli electoral system failed again, extreme proportional representation without any local representation obviously is unworkable, allowing two parties to claim victory, Kadima because it has the largest number of seats and Likud because it leads the largest bloc. Everyone, including the parties themselves, agree that the system needs changing, but will they actually do something about it once they are in office?
5. The big problem now is who will form a governing coalition. There are many options, Pres. Peres is not required to select the leader of the largest party to form the Government, so he could ask either Livni or Netanyahu to do so. Of the various possibilities, there could be a National Unity Government with all parties in it, and Livni and Netanyahu could share the PM position (this happened once before), but that is unlikely. Livni could form a center-left coalition with Labor-Meretz and Israel Beitanu giving a total of 61, a bare majority out of 120. But, Liberman, who expected to get up to 20 seats but still beat Labor, in his speech said that he wanted to join a right wing coalition. So it is most likely that Peres will ask Netanyahu to be PM and form a Govt. that would have a working majority of 65.
6. This result will no doubt upset many of those in the West who are obsessed with the mantra of "a two state solution with Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace." Very nice, but quite unrealistic for now. The Palestinians, as represented by both the PA or Hamas do not want to live in peace with a Jewish State, they don't want to recognize it, and don't want to accept its existence. That is one reason for the trend to the right, Israelis are fed up with giving up land (Lebanon, Gaza to Hamas, the West Bank to the PA) and being clobbered for it, and then being asked to give up more. We hope that a Netanyahu Government will make it clear, no more withdrawals, no more giving up land, unless and until the Palestinians change their attitudes completely. But, we are getting ahead of oursleves, the long, hard process of coalition building and horse trading is ahead and it may take weeks before the final result is known.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:58 PM
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