Iran in Lebanon
A watershed event that is coming soon will be the June 7 election in Lebanon. It is likely that Hizbollah, that already has control over Lebanese Government decisions, will actually become the Government of Lebanon. This will complete a process that was begun in 1979 with the revolution in Iran, when Ayatollah Khomeini decided to export the Shia revolution to Lebanon with its Shia majority. But the Shia in Lebanon are Arabs as opposed to those in Iran who are Persian.
The reason this particular form of imperialism did not work then was that Iraq under Saddam Hussein attacked Iran first, and the Iran-Iraq war lasted for 8 years with a million casualties that bled both of them to a stalemate. It has taken a generation for Iran to recover, and now it is definitely in its exapnsionist phase again, with the development of nuclear weapons, and the funding of its proxies, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Finally a victory for Hizbollah in the Lebanese election will be the fruit of many years of labor for the Iranian-Syrian axis. This includes the removal of the most popular leader in Lebanon Rafik Hariri, whose assassination by car bomb has been linked to both Syria and Hizbollah by the UN Commission. If Iran completes its plan to control an Arab country, Lebanon, it will have exported its revolution far from its borders and right up to the border with Israel. This will be an extremely dangerous situation for both Israel and for the "moderate" Sunni Arab countries, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Without being alarmist this could cause a major war in the Middle East. The Arabs cannot allow the Shia Persians to take over their world and Israel cannot allow Iran to take over Lebanon. What the US under Pres. Obama would do remains to be seen, but he may be distracted for a while by the North Korean nuclear test. We are clearly past the stage of "discussions" both with N. Korea and Iran, but the question is whether or not Obama realizes this and acts accordingly. No doubt when the results of the June 7 election in Lebanon and the June 9 election in Iran are known the state of play will become clearer.
The reason this particular form of imperialism did not work then was that Iraq under Saddam Hussein attacked Iran first, and the Iran-Iraq war lasted for 8 years with a million casualties that bled both of them to a stalemate. It has taken a generation for Iran to recover, and now it is definitely in its exapnsionist phase again, with the development of nuclear weapons, and the funding of its proxies, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Finally a victory for Hizbollah in the Lebanese election will be the fruit of many years of labor for the Iranian-Syrian axis. This includes the removal of the most popular leader in Lebanon Rafik Hariri, whose assassination by car bomb has been linked to both Syria and Hizbollah by the UN Commission. If Iran completes its plan to control an Arab country, Lebanon, it will have exported its revolution far from its borders and right up to the border with Israel. This will be an extremely dangerous situation for both Israel and for the "moderate" Sunni Arab countries, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Without being alarmist this could cause a major war in the Middle East. The Arabs cannot allow the Shia Persians to take over their world and Israel cannot allow Iran to take over Lebanon. What the US under Pres. Obama would do remains to be seen, but he may be distracted for a while by the North Korean nuclear test. We are clearly past the stage of "discussions" both with N. Korea and Iran, but the question is whether or not Obama realizes this and acts accordingly. No doubt when the results of the June 7 election in Lebanon and the June 9 election in Iran are known the state of play will become clearer.
posted by Jack Cohen at 11:42 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home