Temporary settlement freeze?
Reports indicate that Israeli PM Netanyahu and US Middle East envoy Mitchell meeting yesterday in London agreed on a formula for a temporary settlement freeze to last 6-9 months. This would be contingent upon Pres Abbas of the PA agreeing to restart peace negotiations and the rest of the Arab world agreeing to some form of normalization with Israel, either reopening of missions in Morocco, Qatar and Oman or some form of response from Saudi Arabia.
Although the chances of any real progress in these talks is considered minimal, in view of the intransigence of The Palestinains on Jerusalem and the claim of Palestinian refugee's "right of return" to Israel, nevertheless it is thought that both Pres. Obama and PM Netanyahu want some indication of movement. Pres. Obama in order to show that his Administration is successful in this difficult foreign policy area, and PM Netanyahu in order to remove the distraction of the Palestinian issue from what he considers the more pressing task of dealing with Iran.
In order to get the European allies and the US to take the Iranian issue more seriously Netanyahu is prepared to give Obama the gift of a temporary settlement building freeze on theWest Bank, that could have negative domestic political consequences for him. Already there are reports of Likud protests agasint any such freeze. However, his current trip to Europe and his main policy focus is on Iran, and he apparently hopes that some movement with the Palestinians will give Obama enough to allow him to show more support against Iran. If Obama takes the "gift" of the temporary settlement freeze and does nothing with it, in relation to the Arab side, then Netanyahu will end the freeze.
If one were to be more cynical, this time line might mean that Netanyahu is giving Obama 6-9 months to do something serious about introducing harsh sanctions against Iran over its nuclear weapons program. If such sanctions are not implemented within that time or do not have the desired effect, then Netanyahu may decide that the military option is the only path left open to deal with such a direct threat to Israel's existence within that period.
Although the chances of any real progress in these talks is considered minimal, in view of the intransigence of The Palestinains on Jerusalem and the claim of Palestinian refugee's "right of return" to Israel, nevertheless it is thought that both Pres. Obama and PM Netanyahu want some indication of movement. Pres. Obama in order to show that his Administration is successful in this difficult foreign policy area, and PM Netanyahu in order to remove the distraction of the Palestinian issue from what he considers the more pressing task of dealing with Iran.
In order to get the European allies and the US to take the Iranian issue more seriously Netanyahu is prepared to give Obama the gift of a temporary settlement building freeze on theWest Bank, that could have negative domestic political consequences for him. Already there are reports of Likud protests agasint any such freeze. However, his current trip to Europe and his main policy focus is on Iran, and he apparently hopes that some movement with the Palestinians will give Obama enough to allow him to show more support against Iran. If Obama takes the "gift" of the temporary settlement freeze and does nothing with it, in relation to the Arab side, then Netanyahu will end the freeze.
If one were to be more cynical, this time line might mean that Netanyahu is giving Obama 6-9 months to do something serious about introducing harsh sanctions against Iran over its nuclear weapons program. If such sanctions are not implemented within that time or do not have the desired effect, then Netanyahu may decide that the military option is the only path left open to deal with such a direct threat to Israel's existence within that period.
posted by Jack Cohen at 10:12 PM
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