Thursday, November 19, 2009

Back-tracking

The PA leadership is already back-tracking on its threat to declare unilateral independence. Saeb Erekat, Pres. Abbas's spokesman, has now said that he was misunderstood, he didn't really mean what he said.
This retreat is understandable in view of the two major responses so far to the trial balloon, the current Chair of the EU, PM Karl Bildt of Sweden, stated that although Sweden strongly supports the right of the Palestinians to an independent State, so far such a State does not exist and it does not look like it will in the near future, so any declaration of that kind would be "premature." The US State Department also issued a statement opposing any unilateral action. If the Palestinians cannot get EU and US support, their unilateral move is doomed, since most of their financial support comes from these two sources.
Also, of course, PM Netanyahu rejected the idea on behalf of Israel. And let's face it no truncated Palestinian State could exist without Israeli cooperation. The irony is that it is the "moderates" of Fatah who are proposing such a State. This move is rejected by Hamas, and its sponsor Iran, because they are more extreme and would never accept a partial truncated State, they want all of Palestine, including Israel, and to accept less would be a total failure for them.
Notwithstanding the partial turnaround, Abbas is still travelling the world seeking support for his move, which must be seen as a desperate attempt to retain leadership of the Palestinian cause in the face of cancelled elections (hence no democracy) and the schism with Hamas. But, his jaunt in South America will not help him since Pres. Chavez of Venzuela, the most ardent supporter of the Palestinians, is not likely to support his plan, because it will be opposed by his best friend Pres. Ahmedinejad of Iran.
So it appears that the Palestinians are flailing around without a clear purpose and without a hope of success. This can't be bad for Israel, but such a harbinger of instability, just when PM Fayyad has the economic situation in the West Bank improving, cannot be good either.

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