Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Vacuum saviour

If those who abhore war refuse to fight, those who love war and violence will win. It is as simple as that! If the US had not become the saviour of Europe in WWII then we would now be dead or living under a terrible repression. If the US had not outlasted the Cold War with the Soviet Union, who now could raise their heads in freedom. If the IDF had not been able to defeat the combined armies of six Arab States, then the Jews of "Palestine" would have been massacred.

It is indeed difficult for a democracy to decide to go ahead and commit itself to war. That is why you now have the prospect of the Prime Minister of the UK answering questions to a Panel investigating the War in Iraq. Yes, after the event there should be attempts to come to terms with the loss and the reasons to fight, But, some such investigations are motivated by anti-war sentiment more than finding the truth. The Chilcott Panel is doing its job, but there are many out there ready to attack and deny. I agree with Gordon Brown, the war in Iraq was necessary and justified. Now let's get on with the future.

The civilized world is now faced with a challenge of tremendous proportions from a radical Islamic Shia State in Iran, that is embarked on a course of action that is both bellicose and potentially destructive. Yet, the nations of the world represented through the UN Security Council can do no more than endlessly discuss weakened sanctions, the lowest common denominator. Those great bastions of democracy, Russia and China, have their own (commercial) interests to place first. So little Israel will be hung out to dry, and the US Administration of Barack Obama will bleat a lot, but actually do nothing.

There are two possible alternatives, first that the people of Iran will overthrow the dictatorial regime of the Revolutionary Guards and the Mullahs. However, this is an outside possibility, since the regime has a firm hold on the repressive powers it needs to control the situation. The only other alternative is an attack on the sources of power in Iran, the nuclear sites, the oil facilities, the ports, the airfields and so on. What the consequences of this will be is unclear. What is clear is that the Arabs (the Sunnis) are incapable of dealing with this challenge, and the US under Pres. Obama is unprepared to deal with the challenge. It seems only Israel is in a position to take any effective action.

I would submit that that is why the Arab League Foreign Ministers voted in Cairo the other day to tell Pres. Abbas of the PA to start proximity talks with Israel. Just as the independence of Jordan is guaranteed by Israel (against attack from Syria) so now, with concern about American intentions to stay the course, the Sunni Arab States, all other things being equal, see Israel as their only potential saviour. If the US is to relinquish its role as the world superpower in the Middle East, as it is rapidly doing, then something must move in to fill that vacuum, and it would be far, far better if it is Israel and not Iran.

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