Causus belli

If the enemies of Israel are searching for a "causus belli," a convenient excuse to initiate war with Israel, they may have found it. There are reports (from Beirut) that PM Erdogan of Turkey may join a flotilla of ships trying to break the Gaza blockade, escorted by ships of the Turkish navy. Unless US Pres. Obama intervenes and prevents such a provocation, there might be a military clash on the high seas that could lead to war between Turkey and Israel and then no doubt the whole shebang will join in, Hamas in Gaza, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Iran. Now since this seems to be before the Iranians have developed their nuclear capability this may be premature for them, but they do have rockets that can reach Israel with conventional and possibly other (biological, chemical?) warheads. However, given the accuracy of these rockets they may also wipe out some of the Palestinian Arab population they are seeking to support (not that they care).

Of course, this is all a pretense, since there is NO humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Israel cooperates with the UN and humanitarian agencies involved with shipping aid into Gaza. Certainly one could find pockets of poverty in the camps there, but note that the leaders of Hamas are not the suicide bombers and those that are suicide bombers are usually not the poorest, but are usually middle class and educated. It is strange that the current most fervent supporters of the Palestinians are the non-Arab Turks and Iranians, who have been the enemies of the Arabs for centuries, not the usual Arab countries (Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia). There must be a reason for this, and it is not based on a true concern for Palestinian suffering. There is no doubt that both the Turkish and Iranian rulers are using the Palestine conflict as a means to obtain popular support as well as to outmaneuver the Arabs and show that they are more holy than the Pope (that's a bad metaphor in context, but maybe more Holy than the Imam of the Mosque of Mecca). Also, note that Turkey illegally invaded northern Cyprus and set up a Cypriot Islamic Republic there that is not recognized by the UN. Who are they to lecture Israel?

There are serious concerns for Israel's survival should there be an all out war with Turkey as well as the near enemies. Also, Syria has not been mentioned since in the past Syria has been very conservative when it came to actual combat. But if they allowed Iranian troops to enter their territory then that would be a causus belli for Israel. Also, Iran has offered to send its navy to escort ships to Gaza. Now that they have an Islamic extremist proxy in Gaza they want to expand their control and influence. This all seems very fraught with danger, but things in history often happen unpredictably, and although Turkey has a massive army, they do not have the level of Israel's air force. Israel has been supplying them with military supplies for years and knows their capability. Israel has announced that should warships enter the fray they would be sunk not boarded. Also, Turkey is very vulnerable for two reasons. First, their European part could be easily separated from the Asian part (a bridge links the two regions) and second they have a very restive internal Kurdish minority. Let's hope it doesn't get to that and that saner heads prevail. But, if Turkey would do such as thing as send a naval escort to Gaza, it should be expelled from NATO.