Israel in Egypt
PM Netanyahu flew down to Egypt on Sunday to meet with Pres. Mubarak. This meeting was twice delayed, either because the Egyptians were waiting to see what happened with the aid ship to Gaza organized by Qaddafi's son, or because Mubarak was ill again. The ship was safely persuaded to dock at El Arish in Sinai so another clash was averted, and Mubarak seemed fine, so the meeting went ahead. Because of the delay it worked out that Mubarak is meeting with Netanyahu, Pres. Abbas of the PA and Sen. Mitchell, Pres. Obama's special envoy to the ME, all in one day, but separately.
It so happens that all four participants have reasons for common interest: 1. They all fear the growing power of an expansionist Iran, particularly now that it supports the Hamas regime in Gaza and is developing nuclear weapons; 2. They fear that Hamas will expand into the West Bank (the PA) and into Egypt (as an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood) and will continue to attack Israel; 3. They all fear the result of ME instability. The US always wants stability, particularly when it is stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mubarak is now 82 and is in ill health and his successor has not been decided upon (he wants his son Gamal to suceed him); instability could mean the overthrow of the regime at his passing. Israel wishes to avoid another war with Hamas, but also wants to prevent its empowerment.
So on this basis, Mubarak is in a good position to try to foster the much-promised direct talks between Netanyhau and Abbas. Note specifically it is Abbas who is balking at direct talks. Netanyahu has been trying to persuade him to talk directly since he came into office. Abbas is afraid that he will be forced to make concessions and that this will anger Hamas and cause a civil war in the West Bank. But, Obama has promised direct talks, and Abbas hopefully will fall into line. But, before he does he needs to be persuaded by Obama and Mubarak and has asked for an imprimatur of the Arab League, so he is not out on a limb on his own.
But, today the Egyptian FM Aboul Gheit remarked that "the basis for direct talks is still absent." So what more do they want to try to squeeze out of Israel? The Arab League gave Abbas four months for indirect talks, Netanyahu gave Israel 10 months of a partial building freeze on the West Bank. But, the times are almost up. If they don't act soon there will be no "peace in our time." In any case, there will be no peace, but let's hope there won't be war neither.
It so happens that all four participants have reasons for common interest: 1. They all fear the growing power of an expansionist Iran, particularly now that it supports the Hamas regime in Gaza and is developing nuclear weapons; 2. They fear that Hamas will expand into the West Bank (the PA) and into Egypt (as an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood) and will continue to attack Israel; 3. They all fear the result of ME instability. The US always wants stability, particularly when it is stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. Mubarak is now 82 and is in ill health and his successor has not been decided upon (he wants his son Gamal to suceed him); instability could mean the overthrow of the regime at his passing. Israel wishes to avoid another war with Hamas, but also wants to prevent its empowerment.
So on this basis, Mubarak is in a good position to try to foster the much-promised direct talks between Netanyhau and Abbas. Note specifically it is Abbas who is balking at direct talks. Netanyahu has been trying to persuade him to talk directly since he came into office. Abbas is afraid that he will be forced to make concessions and that this will anger Hamas and cause a civil war in the West Bank. But, Obama has promised direct talks, and Abbas hopefully will fall into line. But, before he does he needs to be persuaded by Obama and Mubarak and has asked for an imprimatur of the Arab League, so he is not out on a limb on his own.
But, today the Egyptian FM Aboul Gheit remarked that "the basis for direct talks is still absent." So what more do they want to try to squeeze out of Israel? The Arab League gave Abbas four months for indirect talks, Netanyahu gave Israel 10 months of a partial building freeze on the West Bank. But, the times are almost up. If they don't act soon there will be no "peace in our time." In any case, there will be no peace, but let's hope there won't be war neither.
posted by Jack Cohen at 2:03 PM
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