Palestinian disaster
The Palestinians are rushing towards a dead end where they will self-destruct. The basic problem, as highlighted by Sol Stern in "The Nakba Obsession" (www.city-journal.org), is that the Palestinian narrative is that of the victim. This status has had terrible consequences for the Palestinian people. They celebrate the "Nakba" the "disaster" that has befallen them; what other group celebrates their defeat in order to keep it alive?
Approximately half of all Palestinians have lived in refugee camps throughout the Arab world, in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank for 62 years since the end of the Israeli War of Independence in 1948, and throughout this time they have acted as if they should be the winners. This is a fault in the Arab or Muslim psyche, never accepting defeat. If you don't admit defeat and continue the struggle, then conceivably you could eventually come out the winner. What the Palestinian leaders, following Arafat, as well as Nasser, Assad and Co., have told the Palestinians is that if they continue the struggle they will eventually win and reverse the Nakba. It is for this reason that no Palestinian leader can compromise, it is for this reason that Arafat broke off negotiations with Pres. Clinton at Camp David in 2000 when almost all his demands were met by PM Barak, why Pres Abbas broke of negotiations with PM Olmert when he was similarly near his maximal demands only 2 years ago, and why Pres. Abbas makes impossible pre-conditions now before any direct talks can start. No Palestinian leader can admit that because they were in fact defeated, that they must make a compromise solution and accept an "end of the conflict" and give up their intention to replace Israel. The absurd idea of the "right of return" that has never been applied by any other refugee group in history and that can never be forced on Israel, dooms all negotiations to failure.
Two factors that prevent negotiations with the Palestinians from succeeding are the existence of UNWRA and the schism between Fatah and Hamas. UNWRA was set up by the UN in order to perpetuate the Palestinian refugee problem, by keeping the original refugees in camps and not allowing them to assimilate into their countries of residence. By having the UN feed, clothe and educate them, they could be kept separate from the rest of the population, and thereby kept "ready to return." However, they will never return, and this must be finally seeping into even their thick heads. According to international law a refugee is "one who leaves his/her country either by force or willingly." There is nothing about "right of return" and nothing about second or futher generations remaining refugees, only the actual person leaving is the refugee, not their children nor their grandchildren. No other group in history has had a specific organization established to keep them as "refugees" for generations. And let's face it, this policy of the Arabs has failed, the Palestinians born in the neighboring Arab countries are never going back to what is now Israel, and probably not even to a Palestinian State if one were ever established.
It is a fact of history that whenever there is a potential for compromise the Arabs tend towards the extreme. Thus, no Palestinian leader can afford to compromise with Israel, because he will be considered a sell-out, a "Zionist" (as they were recently called by Ayman al Zawahiri, the second-in-command of al Qaeda) and they will be considered traitors. Thus, the Palestinian movement splinters and splinters again. From Fatah you have the al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades and from Hamas you have Islamic Jihad, as well as al Qaeda. Their basic approach is "no compromise" and so anyone who does compromise becomes part of the enemy. This is not unique to the Palestinians, consider the Irish, who have the IRA, the "provisional" IRA (the provos) and the "real" IRA. But, the difference is that the majority of the Israelis and the Irish really want peace, and so the tendency to splinter in those societies has been stemmed.
In order for the Palestinians to make the fateful compromise, UNWRA needs to be disbanded. I know this seems impossible after 60 years, but on the other hand the US pays one third of its budget (the Arab countries pay hardly anything), and so if only the US Congress voted to stop all (separate) payments to UNWRA, it would have to close down, and then the countries of residence would have to become responsible for their Palestinian citizens. A move to start to do this has recently been initiated in the Lebanese Parliament to give the Palestinians basic human rights that they have been denied all these years. Also, the only way for Hamas to be replaced in Gaza is either by military defeat, or if their paymaster, Iran, is somehow defeated. This may happen if sanctions work or the regime is overthrown.
A contrasting attitude towards this situation can be that it is in Israel's interests for the Palestinians to continue to live in "refugee camps" where they are kept in poverty by their fellow Arabs and that the Palestinian movement is politically divided. Since they show no means of being able to escape this fate, it seems that they will continue as victims while Israel continues to go from strength to strength. One potential "out" for the Palestinians is for a unilateral declaration of Statehood, or for the UN Security Council to establish a Palestinian State. I cannot foresee either of these outcomes, since a Palestinian State cannot survive without Israeli assistance (just as Gaza cannot survive without Israeli supplies) and I don't see the UN SC taking responsibility for such a mess that would ensue if such a State were declared without agreed upon borders and without a means to survive economically. Also, unilateral action by the Palestinians or the UN without Israeli agreement would also unleash Israeli unilateral action. So the future does not look bright for the Palestinian movement, too bad!
Approximately half of all Palestinians have lived in refugee camps throughout the Arab world, in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank for 62 years since the end of the Israeli War of Independence in 1948, and throughout this time they have acted as if they should be the winners. This is a fault in the Arab or Muslim psyche, never accepting defeat. If you don't admit defeat and continue the struggle, then conceivably you could eventually come out the winner. What the Palestinian leaders, following Arafat, as well as Nasser, Assad and Co., have told the Palestinians is that if they continue the struggle they will eventually win and reverse the Nakba. It is for this reason that no Palestinian leader can compromise, it is for this reason that Arafat broke off negotiations with Pres. Clinton at Camp David in 2000 when almost all his demands were met by PM Barak, why Pres Abbas broke of negotiations with PM Olmert when he was similarly near his maximal demands only 2 years ago, and why Pres. Abbas makes impossible pre-conditions now before any direct talks can start. No Palestinian leader can admit that because they were in fact defeated, that they must make a compromise solution and accept an "end of the conflict" and give up their intention to replace Israel. The absurd idea of the "right of return" that has never been applied by any other refugee group in history and that can never be forced on Israel, dooms all negotiations to failure.
Two factors that prevent negotiations with the Palestinians from succeeding are the existence of UNWRA and the schism between Fatah and Hamas. UNWRA was set up by the UN in order to perpetuate the Palestinian refugee problem, by keeping the original refugees in camps and not allowing them to assimilate into their countries of residence. By having the UN feed, clothe and educate them, they could be kept separate from the rest of the population, and thereby kept "ready to return." However, they will never return, and this must be finally seeping into even their thick heads. According to international law a refugee is "one who leaves his/her country either by force or willingly." There is nothing about "right of return" and nothing about second or futher generations remaining refugees, only the actual person leaving is the refugee, not their children nor their grandchildren. No other group in history has had a specific organization established to keep them as "refugees" for generations. And let's face it, this policy of the Arabs has failed, the Palestinians born in the neighboring Arab countries are never going back to what is now Israel, and probably not even to a Palestinian State if one were ever established.
It is a fact of history that whenever there is a potential for compromise the Arabs tend towards the extreme. Thus, no Palestinian leader can afford to compromise with Israel, because he will be considered a sell-out, a "Zionist" (as they were recently called by Ayman al Zawahiri, the second-in-command of al Qaeda) and they will be considered traitors. Thus, the Palestinian movement splinters and splinters again. From Fatah you have the al-Aksa Martyrs Brigades and from Hamas you have Islamic Jihad, as well as al Qaeda. Their basic approach is "no compromise" and so anyone who does compromise becomes part of the enemy. This is not unique to the Palestinians, consider the Irish, who have the IRA, the "provisional" IRA (the provos) and the "real" IRA. But, the difference is that the majority of the Israelis and the Irish really want peace, and so the tendency to splinter in those societies has been stemmed.
In order for the Palestinians to make the fateful compromise, UNWRA needs to be disbanded. I know this seems impossible after 60 years, but on the other hand the US pays one third of its budget (the Arab countries pay hardly anything), and so if only the US Congress voted to stop all (separate) payments to UNWRA, it would have to close down, and then the countries of residence would have to become responsible for their Palestinian citizens. A move to start to do this has recently been initiated in the Lebanese Parliament to give the Palestinians basic human rights that they have been denied all these years. Also, the only way for Hamas to be replaced in Gaza is either by military defeat, or if their paymaster, Iran, is somehow defeated. This may happen if sanctions work or the regime is overthrown.
A contrasting attitude towards this situation can be that it is in Israel's interests for the Palestinians to continue to live in "refugee camps" where they are kept in poverty by their fellow Arabs and that the Palestinian movement is politically divided. Since they show no means of being able to escape this fate, it seems that they will continue as victims while Israel continues to go from strength to strength. One potential "out" for the Palestinians is for a unilateral declaration of Statehood, or for the UN Security Council to establish a Palestinian State. I cannot foresee either of these outcomes, since a Palestinian State cannot survive without Israeli assistance (just as Gaza cannot survive without Israeli supplies) and I don't see the UN SC taking responsibility for such a mess that would ensue if such a State were declared without agreed upon borders and without a means to survive economically. Also, unilateral action by the Palestinians or the UN without Israeli agreement would also unleash Israeli unilateral action. So the future does not look bright for the Palestinian movement, too bad!
posted by Jack Cohen at 9:47 AM
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