Thursday, August 05, 2010

Lebanon incident

A serious military incident took place on Tuesday along the northern border with Lebanon. IDF troops were clearing brush from an enclave of Israeli territory that is located over the border fence with Lebanon. This is a routine action and was coordinated with the UNIFIL forces in the area. Lebanese Army soldiers initiated the firing and killed one IDF officer, Lieut. Col. Dov Harari of Netanya, and wounded another. This was a premeditated and planned attack. The IDF hit back using tanks, artillery and helicopters. A troop carrier was hit killing three LAF soldiers and a journalist. In addition, LAF facilities near the border were destroyed. Israel also lodged a complaint with the UN, since the initiation of fire from Lebanon is a violation of UN SC resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War.

This is the most serious incident to take place on the northern border since the Second Lebanon War of 2006. What is different about this clash is that it was with the Lebanese Army and not with Hizbollah, that always claims to be the "resistance" force in Lebanon. The timing of the attack was aimed to complement the previous attacks from Gaza and on Eilat. But, because this was the Lebanese Army it is likely that neither side wants to escalate now. If it had been Hizbollah there is a likelihood that the incident would have expanded into a further clash. The Israel Government has made it clear that any attack from Lebanon will be considered an attack by the Lebanese Government, now that Hizbollah is a part of that Government. By using its influence Hizbollah may have used the LAF to strike as a proxy at Israel. But, if such attacks continue, Lebanon as a whole and not just Hizbollah will be a target for the IDF.

Sheikh Nasrullah, the leader of Hizbollah, went on al Manar TV last night and blamed Israel not only for this clash, but also for the assassination of Rafik Hariri four years ago. This is of course nonsense, but in the minds of Muslim extremists any action against them is attributed to "the Jews." Nasrallah is probably concerned that the UN commission that has been investigating the assassination, will come to a conclusion that implicates Hizbollah in the killing. Hizbollah often acts on the orders of Iran and/or Syria, and in this case it has already been determined that high level Syrian agents were involved in the assassination. Pres. Bashar Assad, who met in Beirut a few days ago with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and the Lebanese PM, stated that Hizbollah need not fear since it will receive full Syrian backing.

These three serial incidents, that from Gaza, Egyptian Sinai and Lebanon, indicate a degree of deliberate coordination by the forces opposed to Israel. It may be that this is in response to the Arab League meeting that agreed in principle to direct PA talks with Israel, subject to certain conditions. Or it may be in response to the sanctions against Iran, that are beginning to bite. We may never know the reasons, but they are certainly not random attacks, and if they continue this could lead to a further war. However, it is unlikely that any of the parties currently wants to escalate the situation. The US, UN and EU all appealed for calm.

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