Beware the undertow

There is a nervous undertow to the current situation of uprisings in the Arab world. While the US Congress and Natan Sharansky have no hesitation in labelling the demonstrators "democrats" there is another side to these protests. Remember that the chief focus of the demonstrations in Egypt was to bring down the dictator for 30 years Hosni Mubarak, and that Mubarak was seen as a "puppet" of the Americans. Further, he was responsible for maintaining the Peace Treaty with Israel. So it is natural that many of those who brought down Mubarak are anti-American and will now go one step further and try to abrogate the Peace Treaty. One of those is Ayman Nour, a leader of the opposition who was jailed and mistreated by Mubarak. In Cairo he is now calling for the Treaty to be re-evaluated (see "Egyptian opposition figure calls to rethink Camp David Accords" J'sam Post 14/2/11).

Those in Egypt who question the Camp David Accords and the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty should be very careful for what they wish. Any treaty requires two sides to agree, and Egypt cannot renegotiate the treaty unilaterally. If Israel does not agree to such a re-evaluation, then the treaty would become nul and void and Egypt and Israel would be forced back into a state of war. In such a situation anything can happen, war could result from an unforeseen incident. Also, the international forces (MFO, including American forces) that man the truce line in the center of the Sinai protect both sides from invasion, if they are withdrawn Egypt would be in much greater danger from the IDF than vice versa, based on previous experience. As we say in English, "better to let sleeping dogs lie." Further, if Egypt under a new Government did decide to abrogate the Treaty, the US Congress would have no hesitation in cancelling all payments to Egypt, currently b$1.5, leaving them in a far worse financial state. Let, the potential new leaders of Egypt focus on improving the situation of the Egyptian people, not worsening it.

In Jordan, amid the general demonstrations and celbrations, there was one in which the new Minister of Justice called for the release of Cpl. Ahmed Daqamseh who murdered 7 Israeli schoolgirls who were on an outing to the so-called "Peace Island" in 1997. Daqamseh was sentenced to life imprisonment and received a 25 years sentence. The Israeli Foreign Ministry reacted with "revulsion and shock" to this proposal, calling for an explanation from the Jordanian Government. And in the PA there is renewed emphasis on a unilateral declaration of Palestinian Statehood, which some commentators call "desperate."

Those who engineered the successful revolution in Egypt organized themselves through Facebook and other electronic media. They constituted an "electronic brotherhood." But, there is another brotherhood, the Muslim Brotherhood, waiting in the wings. Although they claim with smiling faces that they are merely part of the democratic opposition, some think that the Army took power in Egypt as a supposedly temporary measure to prevent the MB from taking power. It is suggested that if the MB does become too powerful in Egypt, the Army may not then relinquish power, and a civil war may result. There is a balancing act going on thoughout the Muslim world, which is is tipping towards democracy in Egypt and in Iran there is another uprising against the Islamist regime, while in Lebanon and Gaza, Islamist parties continue to cement their control. It can go either way.

That's why we are very happy that Benny Gantz, son of a Holocaust survivor, has taken over the IDF as Chief of Staff sixty years after the Holocaust took place. Israel's only hope is to remain strong and stable while the winds of change sweep through the Arab/Muslim world.