Kerensky and Bakhtiar
Hands up those who remember Kerensky and Bakhtiar. They were the faces of the liberal democratic opposition during the Russian Revolution in 1917 and the Iranian Revolution in 1979! What happened to them? Kerensky was swept away by the Bolsheviks and Bakhtiar was replaced by the Khomeinists. Kerensky lived in New York until 1970, but he was a shattered man and died in obscurity, even though Russia after the fall of Communism in 1991 segued into a supposedly liberal, democratic regime after 70 years. Bakhtiar was less lucky, he was assassinated by agents of Khomeini in Paris in 1991. Theirs is the role mapped out for El Baradei in the current Egyptian Revolution.
Today is Friday, the Muslim holy day, when most Egyptians will attend the Mosques, where the IMams will preach to them that the era of Mubarak is over, and they must go out and make sure that he steps down immediately. The National Democratic Party of Egypt that was established, like the Baath Party in Iraq and Syria, on the pattern of the National Socialist (Nazi) Party of Germany in the 1930s, has represented the rule of the Army controlling the Sunni Arab States from after WWII until now. It is being replaced in a historic turnover by whoever can take power out of the turmoil of the current phase of the Revolution. That will be the most organized and determined and ruthless element. We all know who that is, it is the Muslim Brotherhood. People say that the MB is the leading "opposition party," but really they have been the enemy of the nationalist-socialist (and later capitalist) phase of Egyptian politics throughout the period of Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak.
El Baradei has no constituency in Egypt, he has no masses to support him, they regard him as a representative of the foreign elite. In fact, Pres. Obama is playing precisely into their hands by calling on Mubarak to resign immediately, thus pulling the rug out from under him, as Jimmy Carter did to the Shah of Iran in 1979. That was the greatest foreign policy loss for the USA since WWII. Now Obama is repeating that mistake. If El BAradei is chosen by the liberal, democratic West as their representative in Egypt, he will share the same fate as Kerensy and Bakhtiar. He will remain a figure head for a short period of time, and then be swept away by the ruthless, organized and anti-democratic Muslim Brotherhood. The USA will have no power to prevent this.
Commentators say that the MB has no charismatic leader, like Khomeini. Doesn't matter, they have many leaders and from them will emerge their leadership. We do not know them because they have been suppressed and persecuted by Mubarak and his predecessors. They will want to get even. They will try to capture Mubarak and try him for "crimes against humanity" (murder is not strong enough) and they will then execute him, if they can. This will be great victory for Iranian Shi'ism in that the Sunnis will be following their revolutionary path and no doubt Iranian agents will be active in Egypt supporting the MB. Once this takeover happens, there can be no more "moderate" pro-Western Arab States. The Egyptian MB with the aid of Hamas and Iran will quickly replace the Monarchy in Jordan and the hated Assad regime in Syria, but there will be a major war and bloodshed there (remember Assad's father killed ca. 20,000 Brotherhood supporters in Homs in 1982). Then they will replace the PA with a Hamas substitute, unless Israel can prevent them.
If these predictions come true then the MB will abrogate the Egyptian-Israel peace treaty and will graduaslly move to a war situation against Israel (after consolidating their control of Egypt). Israel should either hit them before they can do that, or wait and prepare for another round of wars with the fundamentalist Sunni Arab enemies, supported by Iran. It is not a pleasant prospect.
(I am grateful to Prof. Hillel Frisch of Bar Ilan University for helping me to clarify my thinking on this matter).
Today is Friday, the Muslim holy day, when most Egyptians will attend the Mosques, where the IMams will preach to them that the era of Mubarak is over, and they must go out and make sure that he steps down immediately. The National Democratic Party of Egypt that was established, like the Baath Party in Iraq and Syria, on the pattern of the National Socialist (Nazi) Party of Germany in the 1930s, has represented the rule of the Army controlling the Sunni Arab States from after WWII until now. It is being replaced in a historic turnover by whoever can take power out of the turmoil of the current phase of the Revolution. That will be the most organized and determined and ruthless element. We all know who that is, it is the Muslim Brotherhood. People say that the MB is the leading "opposition party," but really they have been the enemy of the nationalist-socialist (and later capitalist) phase of Egyptian politics throughout the period of Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak.
El Baradei has no constituency in Egypt, he has no masses to support him, they regard him as a representative of the foreign elite. In fact, Pres. Obama is playing precisely into their hands by calling on Mubarak to resign immediately, thus pulling the rug out from under him, as Jimmy Carter did to the Shah of Iran in 1979. That was the greatest foreign policy loss for the USA since WWII. Now Obama is repeating that mistake. If El BAradei is chosen by the liberal, democratic West as their representative in Egypt, he will share the same fate as Kerensy and Bakhtiar. He will remain a figure head for a short period of time, and then be swept away by the ruthless, organized and anti-democratic Muslim Brotherhood. The USA will have no power to prevent this.
Commentators say that the MB has no charismatic leader, like Khomeini. Doesn't matter, they have many leaders and from them will emerge their leadership. We do not know them because they have been suppressed and persecuted by Mubarak and his predecessors. They will want to get even. They will try to capture Mubarak and try him for "crimes against humanity" (murder is not strong enough) and they will then execute him, if they can. This will be great victory for Iranian Shi'ism in that the Sunnis will be following their revolutionary path and no doubt Iranian agents will be active in Egypt supporting the MB. Once this takeover happens, there can be no more "moderate" pro-Western Arab States. The Egyptian MB with the aid of Hamas and Iran will quickly replace the Monarchy in Jordan and the hated Assad regime in Syria, but there will be a major war and bloodshed there (remember Assad's father killed ca. 20,000 Brotherhood supporters in Homs in 1982). Then they will replace the PA with a Hamas substitute, unless Israel can prevent them.
If these predictions come true then the MB will abrogate the Egyptian-Israel peace treaty and will graduaslly move to a war situation against Israel (after consolidating their control of Egypt). Israel should either hit them before they can do that, or wait and prepare for another round of wars with the fundamentalist Sunni Arab enemies, supported by Iran. It is not a pleasant prospect.
(I am grateful to Prof. Hillel Frisch of Bar Ilan University for helping me to clarify my thinking on this matter).
posted by Jack Cohen at 12:49 PM
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