Thursday, March 24, 2011

Jerusalem bombing

A major bomb explosion occurred outside the main bus station in Jerusalem this afternoon. This was not a suicide bombing, but a bomb that went off next to a bus, injuring ca. 45 people who were both waiting for buses and on a bus, and one woman was killed. It remains to be seen which terrorist group was behind this attack. The police were on the scene within minutes and a search is being conducted for the perpetrators.

It is facile to say that this was a revenge attack for the 10 Palestinians killed in Gaza yesterday, usually it takes time for such attacks to be planned and executed. Also Hamas fired five long-range Grad rockets from Gaza at major Israeli cities last night, at Beersheva, Ashkelon and Ashdod, apparently in revenge for the IAF attack. However, this bombing does fit the pattern of a major escalation of Palestinian terror, probably as a result of four things:
1. The attention of the world and the Arab world especially has been diverted from the Palestinian cause for several months while the uprisings from Morocco to Yemen have been occuring, and the Palestinians no doubt feel neglected, they need world attention to bring pressure on Israel and they crave attention for its own sake.
2. The Assad regime in Syria is under pressure from uprisings of its own internal population, and since Hamas has its headquarters in Damascus, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that this attack was initiated to take attention away from Syria and its internal problems. Also, Hamas wants to deflect attention from its own suppression of Palestinian demonstrators calling for reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.
3. Because of the calm that has prevailed in the region for several years, with an effective ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and no bombings in Jerusalem for 7 years, there have been calls among the extreme terrorist groups to start a "third intifada." This usually results in bombings deliberately directed against Israeli civilians.
4. It is also possible as speculated above that this was a revenge for the attack by the IAF yesterday on Gaza that killed 4 members of a rocket firing team and also killed four civilians apparently by accident, for which PM Netanyahu had apologized yesterday. But, these attacks were in turn responses to the killing of a Jewish family of 5 in Itamar last week as well as the flurry of 54 mortar shells fired at Israel over the past few days.

This escalation mainly from the Arab side seems deliberate and preplanned. Israel will have to respond strongly to try to prevent a major extension of such incidents bringing another intifada that could result in major loss of lives. The PA leaders, Pres. Abbas and PM Fayyad, condemned the bombing, but Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza praised it. There has been improved cooperation between the IDF and the PA police forces on the West Bank in recent months to destroy Hamas' capability there. But, they have enough of a presence to have carried out this bombing. Israel retaliated against Gaza overnight. Those who are calling for renewed negotiations now between Israel and the PA are whistling in the wind, such negotiations cannot take place against a background of renewed bombings and terror attacks.

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