Friday, June 10, 2011

The French connection

The French characteristically would like to replace the USA as the main power broker in the Middle East. That is their major motivation for trying to convene a Middle East peace conference in Paris. While the Middle East is in chaos, when noone knows what will happen in Egypt, Syria or Lebanon, is this the right time to try to bring Israel and the Palestinians together? And the Palestinians have made a deal to unite Fatah and Hamas. Although this agreement is fragile, nevertheless, the Israeli Government has made it clear that it cannot negotiate in any way with a Government that includes Hamas, a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of the State of Israel. Is this a good time for Paris to play the match maker?

The USA thinks not! Secty of State Clinton was quite blunt when she met with French FM Alain Juppe in Washington this week and stated that the US did not support such a conference to discuss bringing the two sides together, instead of just bringing them together. If they don't want to talk, what's the point of a conference to try to persuade them? The Palestinians are fixated on a unilateral declaration of a State to be supported by the General Assembly of the UN. Israel is unable to agree to any discussions involving Hamas. So what's the point? Nevertheless, the French characteristically persist.

It could be argued that Abbas is seeing that his dream of a unilateral recognition of a Palestinian State at the UN is fading, since the US has told him that it will not support such a move in the Security Council and the current President of the GA has said that without a SC resolution the GA cannot act. So maybe he wants to climb down off the branch where he has isolated himself. But, since Netanyahu has ruled out any negotiations with the PA unless the deal with Hamas is cancelled, Abbas can appear to be the good guy by saying yes to the invitation to Paris knowing that it won't happen. Also, he has not removed his precondition for talks with Israel that all building in the West Bank be totally frozen again, something that Netanyahu has also ruled out. So if Abbas goes to Paris and Netanyahu doesn't, it may make Netanyahu look like the bad guy. But, his reasons for not going are very good ones. You need good reasons not to go to Paris, and one of them is the French.

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