Monday, February 13, 2012

Split in Hamas

What does it mean when Khaled Mashaal, the nominal Head of Hamas, decamps from Damascus to Qatar and makes a unity deal with PA Pres Abbas of Fatah there, and PM Haniyeh of Hamas in Gaza goes to Iran for the 33rd aniversary of the Khomeini revolution? It means that there is a split in Hamas.

Perhaps this was inevitable given the instability in the Arab world. Mashaal is anticipating that Pres. Assad will fall and he doesn't want a pro-Iranian Hamas to be left high and dry in an anti-Iranian Syria. In effect, he is turning his back on Shia Iran and voting for the Sunni version of Muslim militancy, the Muslim Brotherhood, that now stands on the brink of taking power in Egypt (as long as the Egyptian military are prepared to give up some of their power to the newly elected MB-dominated civilian government). But, Haniyeh, representing the entrenched Hamas power in Gaza, is not prepared to ditch their sponsor Shia Iran, that has been supplying them with arms and training by the Iranian National Guard. While the split has not yet become an open wound, it will be a miracle if Mashaal and Haniyeh can bridge the gap between two such sworn Muslim enemies as the Sunni and Shia leaders.

Many do not realize that the Sunni and Shia, and the Arabs and the Beduin, hate each other as much or more than they hate the Israelis. Until now the Arab dictatorships (Nasser, Assad, Gaddafi, etc.) have used Israel as an external threat, much as Hitler used the Jews. Blaming the "other" for your problems is a standard technique used by dictators to take the people's minds off their internal problems. Now that the Arab peoples are experiencing an awaking, maybe they won't be so easily distracted. Israel is certainly not their main problem, apart from their economies and well-being, there is also the external threat of Iran for them to worry about. However, having tried to defeat Israel many times (you all know the familiar dates 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982...) the Arabs have found that Israel is too hard a nut to crack, as a consequence of which they have turned on themselves.

I would not say that this is the main cause for the current infighting in the Arab world, there are other long-term forces at work, but I would say that it is a major factor. The Arab world would be different if they had managed to defeat and destroy Israel. Now they are turning from Israel and engaging in internal strife. As long as Israel remains strong they will not be able to destroy us, and this will result in more severe internal splits. Now it seems there are three distinct Palestinian entities, the PA controlled by Fatah, Gaza controlled by the pro-Iranian Hamas, and the international pro-Sunni Hamas that is hovering somewhere between. Who can say what the eventual outcome of these splits will be. Those who claim to support the so-called Palestinians should decide which faction within the Palestinian mess they actually support.

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