Escalation in Gaza

On Friday, three rockets were fired from Gaza into southern Israel. This is a daily occurrence, so nothing surprising, such events are not even reported in the international media. But, this time three Thai workers were injured. Israel responded by attacking Gaza from the air and killing three Palestinian terrorists. This was pin-point accuracy, since one of those killed was Zuhair Qaisi, the Head of the so-called Popular Resistance Committees, and his son-in-law Ahmed Hanini, who were on a motor bike. The PRC are groups of local terrorists who supposedly act independently, but have ties to Hamas. Qaisi was responsible for the attack in the Negev a few months ago that killed 8 Israelis and he was reported to be planning another big operation there. His death infuriated the PRC and they and other groups unleashed a salvo of rockets into Israel, until now over 140 in the current wave (is this worth reporting?) with an additional 40 intercepted by the anti-missile Iron Dome system that protects southern Israel. The IAF responded with further air attacks, hitting at least two rocket teams which were about to launch, killing several of them. So far the casualties are 10 Israeli civilians injured, some seriously, 12 Palestinian terrorists dead and 20 injured. The low Israeli injury count is due to partly to the measures that the Israeli Home Front command has taken to ensure shelters and protection for the civilian population.

Both Hamas in Gaza and the PA blamed Israel for the escalation and warned that there would be further "revenge" attacks on Israel. The Egyptian Government also blamed Israel, but is trying to mediate a ceasefire. Although this is a very unfortunate situation, it was a clash waiting to happen. Ever since Operation Cast Lead in 2008, there have been on and off clashes along the Gaza border, with the Palestinian terrorists arrogating to themselves the right to fire rockets into Israel whenever they choose. This situation is unstable and cannot be allowed to continue. Some think that Israel did not go far enough and use the advantage it gained in Cast Lead to finish off the den of terrorists in Gaza. However, another large clash is almost inevitable.

There are two unknown factors, to what extent Hamas would be prepared to attack Israel should Israel decide to strike Iran to destroy its nuclear capabilities. There have been statements made on both sides of this issue from Hamas leaders in Gaza and elsewhere that either Hamas would support Iran or that it would not! It might be that Israel would take this opportunity to weaken Hamas so that it could not make a "second front" in Gaza while Israel is focussing on Iran. Also, Egypt has tacitly shown support for Hamas, now that it has a nominal Muslim Brotherhood Government in the offing. This could theoretically lead to a military clash between Israel and Egypt, even though there is the long-standing peace treaty between the two countries. While these two outcomes are unlikely, nevertheless the possibility of a larger clash between the IDF and Hamas in Gaza seems inevitable.