Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Arab suicide

The Israeli Government decided that it is in its interest to destroy Syria, to destroy its military, its infrastructure and its leadership.  There are two reasons for this, first that Syria itself is the leader of the Arab rejectionist bloc against Israel and second that Syria is a close ally of Iran and a conduit for arms and materiel to Iran's Shia proxy Hizbollah in Lebanon as well as Hamas in Gaza.  No enemy is more dangerous for Israel ecept Iran itself.  How much is Israel willing to pay to destroy Syria? What must Israel do to realize this aim -  the answer is: nothing!  All Israel has to do is sit back and wait for the Syrians to destroy themselves, they are so split by violence and hatred, that as long as Israel remains strong, is a hard nut to crack, the Arabs turn on each other and in killing each other realize Israel's aims.
One might think that there are other reasons for the suicidal self-destruction of Syria, including the enmity between pro-Assad and anti-Assad forces and the sectarian friction between Alawite and Sunni forces.  But, if Syria had managed to attack and capture parts of Israel, then they would be united in this campaign.  But, in the absence of any ability of the most rejectonist state to counter Israel's existence and indeed thriving, they turn on each other.  The civil war in Syria may be recorded as a latter part of the "Arab Spring" of "the people" against the 40 year dictatorship of the Assads.  But its rather late for the "spring" now, and the civil war is a fundamental crack in Arab social organization that basically results from their inability to prosper, to give their people anything like the life they see existing in Israel, and their inability to challenge or counter Israel in any meaningful way.  They are very good at slogans, but not much else.
Now that a measure of democracy has arrived in Egypt, as well as Tunisia and Libya, those Arab countries have to come to a fundamental balance.  They have to develop a civil society governed by a democratic process, whereby the people can change their government if they so choose, and where they are concerned with the quality of life of the people, and not with trying to destroy Israel.  That latter course leads back to dictatorship, war and poverty.  This is a difficult balancing act for the Arabs, but eventually they must be able to make the transition.  Simply over-throwing the dictators is not enough, they have to produce a system that alleviates the symptoms of dictatorship and that includes learning to live with Israel. 


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