Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Predictions on Iraq

Here are my predictions as to what might happen in Iraq. The Sunni extremists of ISIS, whose ideology is to establish a Caliphate throughout the Middle East from Lebanon to Iraq as the first step, are bent on defeating the Shia in Iraq.  In the cities that they have captured so far, including Mosul and Tikrit, they have taken the Iraqi Shi'ite police and soldiers out into the main square and massacred them.  Their destiny is ordained by Allah to defeat Shi'ism and re-establish Mohammed's Caliphate.  If they really want to do this they will not directly attack Baghdad, because it is currently too well defended and too big a bite for them.  If they really want to piss off the Shia they will bypass Baghdad and attack and capture Kerbala, which is the Shia Holy City only 55 miles south of Baghdad.  It contains the tomb of Hussein, the Prophet Mohammed's grandson, who was killed in the battle of Kerbala in 680 ce by the elected Caliph which led to the schism between Sunni and Shia.  They will desecrate the mosque named after Ali.  This would be a terrible blow to the Shia and would require them to counter-attack, leading to a major sectarian war, which is what ISIS want.  In that case, all Sunni extremists (and maybe all Sunnis) will rally to their side and the result will be a religious war akin to the wars between Catholics and Protestants, such as the Thirty years war (1618-48) and for hundreds of years after that.    
The champion of the Shia is Iran.  The Ayatollahs cannot maintain their postion if they do not respond to such a terrible humiliation and they will send their army into Iraq to defeat ISIS.  This will extend the war to a terrible conclusion, like the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88, when it is estimated that half a million people died.  Those in Europe and the US who want to defend so-called "democratic" Iraq, which was merely a puppet Shia state set-up by the Americans, will be wasting their time and money.  If the US, as some idiots have suggested, cooperate with Iran in trying to defeat ISIS they will find themsrlves on the wrong side.  Remember that 85% of Muslims are Sunnis, and if you collaborate with Iran you will not only make a pact with the devil, namely a totally ruthless totalitarian religious regime, but you will antagonize all the Sunni countries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt and so on.  The simple idea that the enemy of my enemy is my friend does not work in the Middle East, in this case both sides are our enemy.
It will be a stupid move for Pres. Obama to even send air stikes in to try to slow down the ISIS advance.  It cannot make a significant difference, now that the majority of the Sunnis in Iraq have been freed from Shia domination and will support ISIS or anyone who comes along to fight the Shia.  The best advice is not to get involved on either side, nothing can be done now, except to stand by and let them fight it out.  Iraq was a western (British) invention, as are several other Arab countries in the Middle East (Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, etc.), only Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel were formed independently of British and French imperial designs (the Sykes-Picot treaty and all that).  Remember that Israel first fought the British for its independence before fighting the Arabs. For idiots like Boris Johnson (Mayor of London) who called former PM Blair "unhinged" is the height of stupidity, Blair and Bush had nothing to do with this current situation, eventually, after Saddam Hussein and everyone else, the sectarian Sunni-Shia clash has returned and will become the most important issue of our times.  


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