The Emirates solution
The well-known Middle East (ME) analyst Dr. Mordechai Kedar from the
Begin-Sadat Center (BESA) at Bar-Ilan University spoke at Netanya AACI. In a
coherent and informative presentation he gave a unique perspective on the ME.
This is my attempt at a summary.
He pointed out that the term "Peace process" or "Peace in the Middle
East" is taken to refer only to Israel and the Palestinians. Yet, almost every
country in the wider Muslim ME is at war. For example: Morocco is
waging an almost unknown war against the Polisario guerillas for control of
Western Sahara; Algeria had a disputed election that the Islamists
won, but the Army took over and suppressed them, resulting in a civil war in
which ca. 500,000 were killed; Libya is a mess, after the downfall
of Qaddafi, the various tribal groups are currently battling for control;
Egypt is now under a quasi military dictatorship that is
suppressing the Muslim Brotherhood and fighting a civil war in Sinai;
Syria is engaged in a tragic civil war that has killed at least
160,000 and made ca. 9 million homeless; Lebanon has had a major
civil war and is now teetering on the edge of another with Hezbollah taking
greater control; Jordan has barely concealed hostility between the
majority of Palestinians and the Beduin supporters of the Hashemite
Monarchy; Iraq, that was an invention of the British imperialists
who cobbled together a state consisting of mutually hostile Kurds, Sunni Arabs
and Shia Arabs, is now falling apart and engaged in a sectarian civil war that
will probably result in it splitting into at least three separate states;
Yemen is fighting two wars one between the east and west and one
between the military and the Islamists; Iran is fighting barely
known wars against the Kurds in the north west and the Baluchis in the south
east, both of which want their independence from Iranian domination;
Turkey is fighting a continuing war against the Kurds, and if the
Iraqi Kurds try to establish an independent Kurdistan with the Kurds of Syria
and Turkey this will precipitate a major war with Turkey, and so it goes
on.
The question is why is "peace in the ME" taken to refer only to
Israel when there are major conflicts all over the region and the death toll of
those conflicts are infinitely more that the losses of those killed in fighting
with Israel. It is about time that the stupid idea that has gained traction
that all conflicts in the ME derive from the Israel-Palestine conflict is
ditched. I challenge anyone who believes this is the cse to explain the
connection between any of the above intra- and inter-necine conflicts and
Israel. There simply isn't any. So the question arises, why is the Muslim ME
the most conflict-ridden and down-trodden region of the world (even the
conflicts in Africa, such as in Mali, the Central African Republic and Somalia
turn out to be Muslim-related).
For the answer to this question we must note that the only Muslim
Arab states that are not in conflict and are currently affluent, are the Gulf
States, namely Kuwait (that was previously occupied by Iraq), Qatar, and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE). This is a federation of seven independent sovereign
Emirates or Sheikhdoms that have joined together for mutual benefit and
security. If we find the reason for their stability it should help to explain
the instability of the rest of the Muslim world. And the answer is that these
states are relatively small entities in which the rulers have legitimacy based
on their local tribal, religious and ethnic homogeneity. In other words
there are no intra-tribal, ethnic or religious forces that threaten their
established order. Whether this is good or not is beside the point, that is the
apparent reason.
There are four origins of conflict in the ME (as elsewhere), namely
tribal, ethnic, religious and sectarian. Whereas in
the countries of the West, such as the UK, France and the USA, the absence of
tribal and eventually religious conflicts has allowed liberal democracy to
develop, a concept that is unknown and totally inappropriate in most of the
Middle East, where tribal, ethnic, religious and sectarian factors play a far
larger role. For example, the Iraqi army that was 900,000 strong collapsed in
the face of the Sunni ISIS advance because the Iraqi soldiers were not from
Mosul and so it made no sense to them to die to defend it.
There are examples of each source of division, for example the Alawis
of Syria fight for the regime of Pres. Assad not for political reasons, but
because they are ethnically aligned to it. Bahrain is a case of sectarianism,
where the Sunni dominated kingdom rules over a majority Shia population, this
Sunni-Shia sectarian divide is predominant throughout the Middle East. In
Lebanon there are inter-religious conflicts, especially between the Christians
and various sects of Muslims, and in this context the Israel-Palestine conflict
may be seen as a religious conflict. But, basically tribal conflicts are
ubiquitous throughout the ME. One reason why the Palestinians cannot form an
effective State is that they are riven with tribal conflicts, each city has its
own tribe or tribes that rule and control that city. Pres. Abbas has almost no
authority in the seven major cities of the PA. For example Ramallah is controlled by
the Tawil and Barghouti tribes, Jerusalem by the Nashishibis and Husaynis, Jenin
by the Yahya, and so on. Most casual observers are completely unaware of this
tribal infrastructure of power within so-called Palestinian society (note that
Palestine is not originally an Arab name).
A potential solution to the Israel-Arab conflict could be through the
establishment of seven emirates in the West Bank, where each would be a
self-governing entity controlled by the tribe to which the inhabitants owe their
allegiance. In that case the Sheikh or Emir would be the natural ruler, and a
federation of the Tribes could be organized, called for example the United
Sheikhdoms or even the Palestine Emirates. Such entities would be legitimate
and peaceful and could deal with Israel on a friendly and mutually cooperative
basis.
Only when we try to resolve the problems of the ME on the basis of
the real social characteristics and interests of the inhabitants will there be
peace. In the meantime the various interest groups, tribal, ethnic, religious
and sectarian in the ME will have to battle it out, as they did in Europe not so
long ago.
For more details please visit www.palestinianemirates.com
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