Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Deterrence

A lot of what is happening in Gaza is in line with the basic Israeli credo of "don't tread on me," to take a quote from the American context.  In effect Israel is saying, we will take so much, but no more.  The Israeli Govt. tried to maintain the 2012 truce, but Hamas decided for whatever reasons to indiscriminately fire barrages of rockets into Israel.  Once that happened there was in reality no going back.  We will not accept that.  That is why there was a 10 day aerial bombardment of Gaza, striking at Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist targets, particularly rocket launching sites, weapons caches, operational centers (including those hidden in houses and civilian areas) and tunnels.   Even the IDF was surprised at the extent of the "attack" tunnels that opened into Israeli territory (30 found so far), that were designed only to be used to infiltrate Israel, to carry out high profile attacks (massacres) and kidnap Israelis.
When Hamas refused to accept the Egyptian truce offer, that Israel accepted, then it was clear that the next stage had to be the ground invasion.  The IDF chose Sajaiya as its primary target because it was a Hamas stronghold from which about 20% of the rockets were fired and where there was an extensive underground "city."  In order to hurt Hamas it was decided that this town must be destroyed as a center of Hamas activity.  Leaflets were dropped and phone warnings were made to the civilian population.  Many left, but many at the urging of Hamas did not heed the IDF warnings and stayed.  Hence the use by Hamas of "human shields." The IDF then attacked Sajaiya, and it is has effectively destroyed Hamas capability there. Whatever the next stage of the war, perhaps expanding into other Hamas strongholds, the outcome will be disastrous for Hamas.  They should not achieve any positive outcome for their aggression.
What the overall message that the State of Israel is sending to Hamas and others is, that if you truly think you can attack and hurt us, you will live to regret it.  Our military capability is great and our defensive capability, with the Iron Dome anti-missile system, allows us to attack without sustaining civilian casualties.  Yes, we have lost 42 soldiers so far in the campaign Operation Protective Edge, but we have killed around 500 Hamas operatives and destroyed a huge amount of their weaponry and infrastructure.  But, they are still firing dozens of rockets every day and while this goes on the campaign to eradicate their launching capability and missile supplies and destroy their tunnels must continue.  But, make no mistake, the utter destruction of Sajaiya was deliberate, it is a message to Hamas, the Palestinians and everyone else, that if you mess with us, we will destroy you!  This is what happened the last time Hizbollah attacked us, and there has been quite on the northern border since then (also Hizbollah has its own problems in Lebanon and Syria). Remember, you other guys out there who are thinking of attacking Israel, "don't tread on me!"  In other words, Israel has to re-establish it deterrence

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