Thursday, July 17, 2014

Futile Hamas strategy

The Arabs have tried various strategies to destroy Israel and kill Jews.  Their initial major strategy was simpy to invade Jewish areas with militias and armies to massacre Jews and defeat Israeli forces.  They did this in 1921 (riots), 1929 (massacre in Hebron), 1936 (the Uprising), 1948 (the War of Independence), 1956 (the Sinai campaign), 1967 (the 6-Day War), 1973 (the Yom Kippur War), and 1982 (the First Lebanon War).  When the enlightened leaders of Jordan (King Hussein) and Egypt (Pres. Sadat) saw that this was a futile strategy, they capitulated and signed peace treaties with Israel (Egypt in 1979, Jordan in 1994).
Since the Palestinian Arabs under Yasir Arafat could no longer depend on the Arab States to fight their battles, the PLO switched strategies and turned first to intifada (i.e. more riots) (the First Intifada 1987-1993; the Second Intifada 2000-2005).  But when that failed to work they extended their strategy to terrorism and suicide bombings (mostly 2001-2005).  This strategy was ended by the Israeli building of the Security Fence (2003-2012) which prevented easy Palestinian access into Israel.   Since the rocket attacks by Saddam Hussein on Israel during the First Gulf War of 1991 were seemingly successful and Israel had no effective answer to them (and did not use the IAF against Iraq), the Palestinain terrorist organizations have turned to a strategy of firing rockets into Israel at civilian centers, although the rockets and missiles are not targeted.
With the development by Israel of the Iron Dome anti-missile system, now it can be concluded that this rocket strategy of Hamas and Hizbollah is futile, it has been successfully counteracted by Israel.  Since the deployment of Iron Dome in 2011, and operational improvements, the Iron Dome anti-missiles are now ca. 90% effective.  With a tenth battery now becoming operational there is little chance that any rockets can get through the Iron Dome umbrella and cause mass Jewish casualties, as intended by their launchers.  For example, in the current round of hostilities, Hamas have launched ca. 1,000 missiles into Israel.  Of these, ca. 70% fell on unpopulated territory, and only ca. 30 % were expected to fall on populated (or protected) territory.  Since the operational ability is ca. 90% that means that only 10% of 300 or only 30 rockets were actually able to penetrate to Israeli populated areas.  Today the first actual Israeli casualty, Dror Chanin, a volunteer killed by shrapnel from a mortar near the Gaza border, was announced.
This is a laughable proportion, 30 out of 1,000, or 3%, or 1 man killed for 1,000 rockets fired, indicating that the strategy is totally futile.  Imagine the cost and danger of firing 970 rockets for NO reason.  Not only do the launchers usually get killed because of the rapid IAF response to rocket fire, but it is a futile strategy.  Certainly the firing of the Iron Dome anti-missiles is much more costly than the rockets fired by Hamas, but Israel as a technologically advanced country with a strong economy, can well afford this expense to protect its civilians.  During this current bombardment by Hamas, most Israelis have in fact been going about their business, living their lives and continuing to be productive without much interference (this is not to minimize the truly terrifying situation in certain parts of the coutnry, particularly the south, where rockets have been falling at a truly alarming rate and life is lived under a reign of terror).  When will Hamas and the Palestinians realize that their current rocket strategy is a failed approch to kill Jewish citizens of Israel and bring the country to a standstill.  They are running out of ideas and time.


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