Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Islamist strategy

Islam teaches that the world is divided into two regions, dar al-Islam, the region of Islam, synonymous with dar al-salaam, the region of peace, and dar al-harb, the region of war.  It is curious that Muslims believe and accept this, given that their world dar al-Islam is far from peaceful and is in fact the source of most of the violent conflict in the world today.  One of the reasons for the wars is that there are always Muslim forces trying to control and expand dar al-Islam, in other words Islam is expansionist.  Today those forces are called Islamist or jihadist.
In trying to expand the region of Islam they have three strategies:
1. Direct force.  Their aim is to defeat and conquer all those kaffir (infidels) who do not follow their beliefs and do not submit to Islam (meaning submission).  This is the strategy of the Islamic State, that is seeking to expand its realm as a Caliphate over the whole of the Middle East and then over the whole of the world.   For example, the Turkish Empire that was the last Muslim Caliphate, was a unitary Empire until it was defeated by the British and French during WWI (the US did not fight the Turks) and then it was broken up into what are today ca. 24 separate countries, from Morocco to Azerbaijan, from Bosnia to Yemen.  IS seeks to reassert strict Sunni Muslim control over the whole of this region and in doing so will eliminate all opponents, including all minorities and sects, just as Mohammed did in his original conquest of Arabia in the 7th century.  Iran which follows the Shi'ite schism of Islam is also trying to expand its own realm, as it did in the former Persian Empire.  In order to do this they are attempting to develop nuclear weapons, although the West is being extremely niaeve in negotiating with them for 10 years to try to stop this.  Ironically the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam are deadly enemies and will probably destroy each other if left alone, much as they are doing in Syria and Iraq today, with the Assad regime in Syria and the Government of Iraq as basically Shia proxies and the Sunni populations of Syria and Iraq as the protagonists.  The US and its coalition attacking IS from the air with Kurdish ground forces fighting in Kobani and the Autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq is trying to maintain the previous State structure of the region, i.e. a distinct Syria and Iraq, but in fact the distinction between them is now gone, and the whole region is in ferment.  After the dust has settled, who knows what the disposition of forces will be, but one prediction is that the Western strategy of maintaining the status quo ante will fail.
2. Persuasion. IS and its affiliates are attempting to radicalize young Muslims and obtain converts by using all PR methods available, especially the internet and social media (facebook, U-Tube, etc.).  It is amazing that until now there has been no concerted effort to close down and stop web-sites advertising the beheading of infidels as a great victory for Islam.  This strategy is working, the thousands of adherents of the extreme version of Islam are flooding into the region of IS from all Muslim countries around the world and from most non-Muslim countries with Muslim minorities.  Whether IS is ultimately successful or not, just as happened after the Afghan war, these adherents and converts will come flooding back into their homelands, and will wreak havoc there.  It is estimated that a major attack on US and UK soil is inevitable.   
3. Demographics.  The expansion of Muslims into Europe has been going on for at least 25 years and there are now sizeable Muslim minorities in the Scandinavian countries, France, Britain, Germany and so on, that even a small portion of them can constitute a very significant threat to the integrity and culture of those countries.  This is called establishing dar al-Islam by the womb.  Muslims move to Europe and where the average birth rate is ca. 2 or less (barely maintaining population) the Muslim birthrate is ca. 3-5.  It is in fact incumbent on any believing Muslim to work for the political leadership of his State to be Muslim and for the imposition of Shari law.  It is not hard to predict in a few generations that there will be continuing violent struggle for control of the European States.  Those politicians who adopt pro-Muslim or pro-Arab positions in order to curry favor with Muslim voters, such as being overtly anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian, are totally missing the point.  They too will be swept away by the tide of Islamism if they don't soon recognize the true threat to their own existence.
It is not my place to tell anyone what to do, I only point out the trends that seem obvious by looking at the current state of affairs and then projecting into the future.


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