Political crisis

Today the Israeli political situation is poised on the cusp of a crisis. Of
course, being Israel the situation is very complex. It came about because
PM Sharon has appointed three new Ministers to take the place of others who
have moved on, Ehud Olmert as Finance Minister (in place of Benjamin
Netanyahu, who resigned), Ronnie Bar-on as Minister of Industry and Trade
and Zeev Boim as Absorption Minister. Today these appointments were
approved by the cabinet, but they also have to be approved by the Knesset,
and there's the rub.
The crunch will come because PM Sharon probably does not have a majority in
the Knesset to pass these appointments. This is because of the Likud
rebels, who broke with Sharon over the disengagement from Gaza and who so
far have refused to reconcile with him now that its over. Netanyahu is
considered the leader of this group (with Uzi Landau) and will try his best
to bring down Sharon so that he can succeed him as leader of Likud.
Also, the Labor faction joined the Government in order to support the
disengagement, and now that its over there are increasingly strident voices
on the left calling for Labor to abandon Sharon. For example, today Vice PM
Peres, leader of Labor, criticized IDF actions in Samaria against Islamic
Jihad, that some leftists think are too extreme. They feel that Sharon and
Mofaz have adopted a strong line to appeal to his disaffected Likud right
wing.
So Sharon is being abandoned both from the right and the left. If he loses
the vote he will surely resign and call for new elections. But, if
Netanyahu wrests the leadership of Likud from him in the Likud primaries in
December then Sharon will be a leader without a party. So he may form a
party of his own, which is not unique in Israeli history (both Ben Gurion
and Dayan did it before). However, In order not to waste time on a losing
struggle within Likud, many commentators think that Sharon may immediately
announce the formation of a centrist party as soon as he resigns, and while
he still has the aura of leadership. This may attract members from the
centrist parts of Likud and Labor who think that he has a winning chance and
they may gain accordingly in the next election. Polls currently show that
Sharon would beat Netanyahu and no Labor leader is anywhere near them.
So the crisis is coming very soon, maybe as early as Monday, and it may
herald the temporary breakdown of the traditional two main party system in
Israel. However, no centrist party has ever been successful for more than
one election here, and Sharon is already 77 years old. Meanwhile the
external threats haven't receded.