The Coalition

The Coalition Government finally chosen by Ehud Olmert consists of Kadima
(29), with Labor (19), Gil (Pensioners, 7), Shas (12), UTJ (6), and Israel
Beiteinu (11), for a total of 84 seats, a handy majority. This blends the
center left with two religious and one right wing party. Note that the
extreme left wing party Meretz (5) and the Arab Parties (9) are outside
the Coalition and the right wing opposition is lead by Likud (12) with
UT-NRP (9).
There are three factors that may spell problems in the future. First, is that
in dealing out Ministries, one of the top three had to go to Peretz of Labor,
and he is being appointed Defense Minister. This makes no real sense since
first, he made a point of avoiding all security/defense issues in his campaign
and stuck to social matters that are his forte. Second, he has no background
or experience in the Defense field. He served in the IDF and was invalided
out, but has never held any position or experience related to Defense. Since
Defense is a matter of prime importance in Israel, one might have expected
someone with more of a military or security background to be given this
portfolio. It may be that Olmert hopes that Peretz will be such a failure at
Defense that he will have to be removed or replaced. But, another view is
that because of his lack of experience the military will run rings around him
and do just what they like, so that the Chief of Staff, Dan Halutz, has
actually supported the appointment of a civilian to the post of Defense
Minister.
The second potential problem is the inclusion of IB, a right wing party
opposed to future withdrawals from the West Bank, in the Coalition. On the
one hand, Olmert has stated that he will have no party in the Coalition unless
they accept his "convergence plan" to move many small settlements on the
West Bank closer to the main ones and then draw the borders of Israel. On
the other hand, IB's leader Avigdor Lieberman, who favors transferring Arabs
rather than territory, has already stated publicly that he will work against
the convergence plan from within the Coalition. This would seem to make
for rocky days ahead.
The third issue is related to the second, namely that with his "core"
coalition of Kadima, Labor and Gil, Olmert has less than 61 seats, not enough
for a majority. So for any security issue such as the convergence plan he
might find that he is dependent on parties outside his coalition, and he does
not want to, nor can he afford to, depend on the support of Meretz or the Arab
parties for any significant policy. This might hamper his freedom of action
and could potentially bring down his Government.
Olmert felt that he needed at least one coalition partner to his right and
the religious parties, so as to broaden the range of his coalition, so that he
could justify taking significant steps affecting the future of the State.
This he has now accomplished. But, whether or not they will all stay with
him through these difficult decisions and through the next four years is
impossible to predict.