Going my way
The unanimous statement on the Middle East crisis issued by the participants at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg is distinctly favorable to Israel. This was undoubtedly due to the influence of Pres. Bush and PM Blair, deflecting the prior harsh criticism of Israel from France and Russia.
The blame for the current crisis is squarely placed upon those responsible, namely Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon. The statement refers to the need to implement UN SC resolution 1559 of 2004 that calls for the disarming of Hizbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese Army to the Israel border. Of course, the statement also calls for a ceasefire and for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian politicians (not in the same category) and calls on both sides to avoid civilian casualties. But, no deadline for the ceasefire is even suggested. One notable point missing is any criticism of Syria and Iran that was ommited due to Russian influence.
This is an unusual situation where Israel is on the side of the good for a change. Instead of being forced to accept an imposed ceasefire in record time, Israel is in effect being given time to diminish Hizbollah, and then is also asking for SC1559 to be implemented. Blair and UN Secty. Gen Kofi Annan have called for an international force to be stationed in South Lebanon. Israel is not happy about such forces, since in the past the UN force that was deployed there essentially did nothing, except help Hizbollah. The last time when there was a kidnapping of Israeli soldiers it turned out that Hizbollah had used a UN truck to trick them, that they had "hired" from the UN forces. However, if the intl. force is temporary, and will be trailblazers for the Lebanese Army to take over, then Israel might agree.
The headline in the Jerusalem Post this morning is that the "IDF wants another week to smash Hizbollah." In the past 5 days of fighting it has estimated that it has been diminshed by 25%, enough to cause serious damage, but estimates from IDF sources are that in another few days this will be down to ca. 50% and beyond that Hizbollah will be severely impaired. It is very important that Israel discovers and destroys the secret caches of Iranian and Syrian long range missiles that Hizbollah possesses (thought to number in the hundreds) before they can fire them.
So far the furthest south that the 1,000 or so rockets fired on Israel have reached is Afula, ca. 40 km (25 ml) from the Lebanese border. If the range extends to Tel Aviv or equivalent (say 80 km or 50 ml) then Israel would consider that another escalation and would inflict more damage on Hizbollah, including a possible ground operation. Individual IDF commando units are also operating in Lebanese territory, and certain villages, from which extensive rocket activity has been detected are being destroyed after the civilians have been told to leave. The IDF is trying to make sure that conditions are such that Hizbollah can never return to the south, and in fact Blair has suggested that the area up to the Litani River in Lebanon (ca. 50 km) should be a restricted area for them.
The UN fact finding team was in Beirut yesterday and expressed its sympathy with the Lebanese people, but I don't expect they will do the same when they arrive in Israel soon. Nevertheless, they will be received in a friendly manner by Israeli FM Tzipi Livni and then they will return to NY to report back to the Secty. Gen. and he will report to the Security Council. All nice time wasting measures, before the Security Council, the same people who met in St. Petersburg, take up the case to discuss again. The difference is that an SC resolution is supposed to be binding under international law. By then I suspect that Sheikh Nasrallah, even though he is currently basking in the glow of being the first Arab leader who was able to inflict severe damage in the Israeli homeland, will be regretting that on behalf of Iran he initiated this hostile action.
The Iranian FM met in Damascus with the Syrian leader, Bashar Assad, and they issued a statement that there could be a ceasefire in Lebanon (now that Iran has achieved its aim of distracting the G8 from criticizing its nuclear program, and Hizbollah is practically decimated). Tonight PM Olmert addressed the Knesset and the nation and set out his conditions for a ceasefire, the 3 soldier hostages must be returned, Hizbollah must be disarmed and will not be tolerated near the Israel border. Now that the idea of a ceasefire has been broached, intermediaries (such as the Lebanese Government, Britain, France, the UN) could handle the exhanges of soldiers and Secty. of State Rice will visit soon. So the end game is gradually appearing thru the fog of war. However, latest reports of a long range (200 km) having been fired from Lebanon may delay any such outcome.
The blame for the current crisis is squarely placed upon those responsible, namely Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon. The statement refers to the need to implement UN SC resolution 1559 of 2004 that calls for the disarming of Hizbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese Army to the Israel border. Of course, the statement also calls for a ceasefire and for the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian politicians (not in the same category) and calls on both sides to avoid civilian casualties. But, no deadline for the ceasefire is even suggested. One notable point missing is any criticism of Syria and Iran that was ommited due to Russian influence.
This is an unusual situation where Israel is on the side of the good for a change. Instead of being forced to accept an imposed ceasefire in record time, Israel is in effect being given time to diminish Hizbollah, and then is also asking for SC1559 to be implemented. Blair and UN Secty. Gen Kofi Annan have called for an international force to be stationed in South Lebanon. Israel is not happy about such forces, since in the past the UN force that was deployed there essentially did nothing, except help Hizbollah. The last time when there was a kidnapping of Israeli soldiers it turned out that Hizbollah had used a UN truck to trick them, that they had "hired" from the UN forces. However, if the intl. force is temporary, and will be trailblazers for the Lebanese Army to take over, then Israel might agree.
The headline in the Jerusalem Post this morning is that the "IDF wants another week to smash Hizbollah." In the past 5 days of fighting it has estimated that it has been diminshed by 25%, enough to cause serious damage, but estimates from IDF sources are that in another few days this will be down to ca. 50% and beyond that Hizbollah will be severely impaired. It is very important that Israel discovers and destroys the secret caches of Iranian and Syrian long range missiles that Hizbollah possesses (thought to number in the hundreds) before they can fire them.
So far the furthest south that the 1,000 or so rockets fired on Israel have reached is Afula, ca. 40 km (25 ml) from the Lebanese border. If the range extends to Tel Aviv or equivalent (say 80 km or 50 ml) then Israel would consider that another escalation and would inflict more damage on Hizbollah, including a possible ground operation. Individual IDF commando units are also operating in Lebanese territory, and certain villages, from which extensive rocket activity has been detected are being destroyed after the civilians have been told to leave. The IDF is trying to make sure that conditions are such that Hizbollah can never return to the south, and in fact Blair has suggested that the area up to the Litani River in Lebanon (ca. 50 km) should be a restricted area for them.
The UN fact finding team was in Beirut yesterday and expressed its sympathy with the Lebanese people, but I don't expect they will do the same when they arrive in Israel soon. Nevertheless, they will be received in a friendly manner by Israeli FM Tzipi Livni and then they will return to NY to report back to the Secty. Gen. and he will report to the Security Council. All nice time wasting measures, before the Security Council, the same people who met in St. Petersburg, take up the case to discuss again. The difference is that an SC resolution is supposed to be binding under international law. By then I suspect that Sheikh Nasrallah, even though he is currently basking in the glow of being the first Arab leader who was able to inflict severe damage in the Israeli homeland, will be regretting that on behalf of Iran he initiated this hostile action.
The Iranian FM met in Damascus with the Syrian leader, Bashar Assad, and they issued a statement that there could be a ceasefire in Lebanon (now that Iran has achieved its aim of distracting the G8 from criticizing its nuclear program, and Hizbollah is practically decimated). Tonight PM Olmert addressed the Knesset and the nation and set out his conditions for a ceasefire, the 3 soldier hostages must be returned, Hizbollah must be disarmed and will not be tolerated near the Israel border. Now that the idea of a ceasefire has been broached, intermediaries (such as the Lebanese Government, Britain, France, the UN) could handle the exhanges of soldiers and Secty. of State Rice will visit soon. So the end game is gradually appearing thru the fog of war. However, latest reports of a long range (200 km) having been fired from Lebanon may delay any such outcome.
posted by Jack Cohen at 9:54 AM
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