Iran's adventurism
It used to be said that the Jews were like the "canary" in the mine, if they were extinguished nothing could live. Now Israel is the "canary" in the world's mine. If the world and the Security Council or the G8 enforce a ceasefire on Israel because of spurious PR concepts such as "spiralling violence," "disproportionate force," "collective punishment," (never heard in relation to any other conflict in the world!) before they destroy Hizbollah then they will once again be rewarding the Islamist terrorists, allowing them to escape the consequences of their actions, and in future it will be the world's democracies which will suffer the consequences.
Each time that the Palestinians, now under Hamas, and Hizbollah unleash an attack against Israel, and in any country these attacks would be considered acts of war, the international community, influenced by the Arab bloc, has stepped in, demanded a ceasefire and the situation has been frozen in place, ready for the next outbreak. But there are some differences this time. The attacks were so blatant and clear-cut, especially since Israel's withdrawal from Gaza last year and from Lebanon six years ago, and the taking of soldier hostages makes this a continuing crisis. Also, the similarities of the tactics adopted by H & H point to their coordination. This time the UN Security Council has passed the issue onto the G8 meeting in St. Petersburg, and you can be sure there will be much discussion to come up with a joint statement from both the US/UK and Russia, France and the EU. The longer the delay the better it is for Israel.
In this situation, Hamas is not merely a Palestinian actor and Hizbollah is not merely a Lebanese actor, but they are really extensions of Iranian policy, relayed through Syria. In Damascus the representatives of Hamas, Hizbollah and other terrorist groups meet and conduct discussions all the time with the representatives of the security services of Syria and Iran. So Hizbollah is a regional actor of Islamist extremism, and the current situation has been initiated and planned from Teheran and Damascus. It has almost nothing to do with the Government of Lebanon or PA Fatah President Abbas.
One of the consequences of this is that apart from the standard criticism of Israel, a bloc of Arab countries have come out and openly criticized Hizbollah at the Arab League meeting that is taking place in Cairo. They are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrein, the UAE and the PA (Abbas), half of the 18 representatives present. Their position is that Hizbollah has caused the current situation in Lebanon by reckless military acts. This as an implied criticism of Iran, that they see as an irredentist Shi'ite player trying to take over parts of the Sunni Arab world by using the Palestine conflict. The supporters of H & H are mainly Syria and Iran, and the Shi'ite population in south Lebanon. This split, although limited, is a good sign for the West and for Israel.
The Shi'ites constitute 40% of the Lebanese population and have about 20% of the representatives in the Lebanese Parliament, with two Hizbollah members in the Lebanese Government. Although it might seem possible for the Lebanese Government to insist that Hizbollah disarm - as ALL other militias did years ago, this entrenchment of Hizbollah in the organs of power largely prevent the Lebanese Government from acting. They fear the outbreak of another civil war (the other 60% are not unified), and the Lebanese Army is no match for Hizbollah. Also, Hizbollah justifies itself by saying that it is focussed on fighting Israel. So it is somewhat schizophrenic, either it exists to fight Israel or it exists to be a part of the Lebanese political system. In the final analysis it can't have it both ways.
But, if the IDF is able to decimate Hizbollah's military capability, then it might make it possible for Pres. Seniora, as he hinted in his interview the other day, to extend the Lebanese Army down to the Israel border. However, this might not solve the problem, since the Lebanese Army has been complicit with Hizbollah in fighting the IDF (they have been passing information to Hizbollah for years). However, if in an optimistic analysis, Hizbollah can be disarmed as part of a ceasefire agreement, that might finally resolve the problem. The chances of this happening are very small to nil.
Iran has achieved one of its main goals with the H & H actions, they have taken attention away from the Iranian attempts to acquire nuclear arms and from the EU-US offer/ ultimatum that had a flexible time limit. After the G8 meeting that is considering this, Iran may call Hizbollah off, since their proxy has suffered a lot of damage at their behest. But, now having the bit between the teeth, having inflicted more damage on Israel with their katyusha rockets than ever before. Hizbollah might want to see this through to the bitter end. Let's hope the IDF has enough time to decimate Hizbollah capabilites.
They have destroyed the major Hizbollah facilties in Beirut, but the leadership has gone underground, and could escape bombing. So the IDF might launch a ground attack, but that is tricky, dangerous and might also not succeed. It is only a question if the IDF can inflict enough damage and can get the international community, with US/UK leadership, to take the bull by the horns and deal a significant blow to Hizbollah either by forcing it to disarm and/or to move further north. Otherwise these crises are going to erupt periodically and the Islamist/Jihadist axis is going to gain strength from its military adventurism, and this would be a threat to all.
The main criticismof Israel is the loss of "civilian lives" in Lebanon. But, remember that Hizbollah is not a regular army with uniforms. They blend in with the population, and when they are killed they are usually counted as civilians, if you look at the figures there are none for "combatants." Then again Hizbollah hides among the supportive Shi'ite population of south Beirut and south Lebanon. Israel has dropped fliers warning the popualtion to leave their houses and go north. In the wake of the rocket attacks on northern Israel and Haifa the IDF will now commence a wide-spread intense bombing/strafing campaign in south Lebanon in order to destroy the capability of Hizbollah.
Only then should the US at the G8 introduce a ceasefire proposal according to UN SC resolution 1559 of 2000, under which the Lebanese Army will be deployed down to the Israel border, Hizbollah will be removed from the border region and will be disarmed. Until Israel can get these conditions implemented the IDF will continue its military campaign within Lebanon.
Each time that the Palestinians, now under Hamas, and Hizbollah unleash an attack against Israel, and in any country these attacks would be considered acts of war, the international community, influenced by the Arab bloc, has stepped in, demanded a ceasefire and the situation has been frozen in place, ready for the next outbreak. But there are some differences this time. The attacks were so blatant and clear-cut, especially since Israel's withdrawal from Gaza last year and from Lebanon six years ago, and the taking of soldier hostages makes this a continuing crisis. Also, the similarities of the tactics adopted by H & H point to their coordination. This time the UN Security Council has passed the issue onto the G8 meeting in St. Petersburg, and you can be sure there will be much discussion to come up with a joint statement from both the US/UK and Russia, France and the EU. The longer the delay the better it is for Israel.
In this situation, Hamas is not merely a Palestinian actor and Hizbollah is not merely a Lebanese actor, but they are really extensions of Iranian policy, relayed through Syria. In Damascus the representatives of Hamas, Hizbollah and other terrorist groups meet and conduct discussions all the time with the representatives of the security services of Syria and Iran. So Hizbollah is a regional actor of Islamist extremism, and the current situation has been initiated and planned from Teheran and Damascus. It has almost nothing to do with the Government of Lebanon or PA Fatah President Abbas.
One of the consequences of this is that apart from the standard criticism of Israel, a bloc of Arab countries have come out and openly criticized Hizbollah at the Arab League meeting that is taking place in Cairo. They are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrein, the UAE and the PA (Abbas), half of the 18 representatives present. Their position is that Hizbollah has caused the current situation in Lebanon by reckless military acts. This as an implied criticism of Iran, that they see as an irredentist Shi'ite player trying to take over parts of the Sunni Arab world by using the Palestine conflict. The supporters of H & H are mainly Syria and Iran, and the Shi'ite population in south Lebanon. This split, although limited, is a good sign for the West and for Israel.
The Shi'ites constitute 40% of the Lebanese population and have about 20% of the representatives in the Lebanese Parliament, with two Hizbollah members in the Lebanese Government. Although it might seem possible for the Lebanese Government to insist that Hizbollah disarm - as ALL other militias did years ago, this entrenchment of Hizbollah in the organs of power largely prevent the Lebanese Government from acting. They fear the outbreak of another civil war (the other 60% are not unified), and the Lebanese Army is no match for Hizbollah. Also, Hizbollah justifies itself by saying that it is focussed on fighting Israel. So it is somewhat schizophrenic, either it exists to fight Israel or it exists to be a part of the Lebanese political system. In the final analysis it can't have it both ways.
But, if the IDF is able to decimate Hizbollah's military capability, then it might make it possible for Pres. Seniora, as he hinted in his interview the other day, to extend the Lebanese Army down to the Israel border. However, this might not solve the problem, since the Lebanese Army has been complicit with Hizbollah in fighting the IDF (they have been passing information to Hizbollah for years). However, if in an optimistic analysis, Hizbollah can be disarmed as part of a ceasefire agreement, that might finally resolve the problem. The chances of this happening are very small to nil.
Iran has achieved one of its main goals with the H & H actions, they have taken attention away from the Iranian attempts to acquire nuclear arms and from the EU-US offer/ ultimatum that had a flexible time limit. After the G8 meeting that is considering this, Iran may call Hizbollah off, since their proxy has suffered a lot of damage at their behest. But, now having the bit between the teeth, having inflicted more damage on Israel with their katyusha rockets than ever before. Hizbollah might want to see this through to the bitter end. Let's hope the IDF has enough time to decimate Hizbollah capabilites.
They have destroyed the major Hizbollah facilties in Beirut, but the leadership has gone underground, and could escape bombing. So the IDF might launch a ground attack, but that is tricky, dangerous and might also not succeed. It is only a question if the IDF can inflict enough damage and can get the international community, with US/UK leadership, to take the bull by the horns and deal a significant blow to Hizbollah either by forcing it to disarm and/or to move further north. Otherwise these crises are going to erupt periodically and the Islamist/Jihadist axis is going to gain strength from its military adventurism, and this would be a threat to all.
The main criticismof Israel is the loss of "civilian lives" in Lebanon. But, remember that Hizbollah is not a regular army with uniforms. They blend in with the population, and when they are killed they are usually counted as civilians, if you look at the figures there are none for "combatants." Then again Hizbollah hides among the supportive Shi'ite population of south Beirut and south Lebanon. Israel has dropped fliers warning the popualtion to leave their houses and go north. In the wake of the rocket attacks on northern Israel and Haifa the IDF will now commence a wide-spread intense bombing/strafing campaign in south Lebanon in order to destroy the capability of Hizbollah.
Only then should the US at the G8 introduce a ceasefire proposal according to UN SC resolution 1559 of 2000, under which the Lebanese Army will be deployed down to the Israel border, Hizbollah will be removed from the border region and will be disarmed. Until Israel can get these conditions implemented the IDF will continue its military campaign within Lebanon.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:00 AM
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