In every decade
What do the following years have in common, 1929, 1936, 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, 1993, 2000 and 2006? They were all years in which there were major outbreaks of Arab-Jewish/Israel violence. At least one in every decade for 90 years! In 1929 there were Arab massacres of Jews in Jerusalem and Hebron, in 1936 was the so-called "Arab uprising" that was put down by the British. In 1948 was the Israel War of Independence, in 1956 the Sinai Campaign, in 1967 the Six Day's War, in 1973 the Yom Kippur War, in 1982 the Lebanon War, in 1993 the first intifada, in 2000 the second intifada, and now in 2006 we have the Hamas-Hizbollah war. How many of these were started by the Jews/Israel? The answer is nil, in every case the aggressor was the Arab side, but also in every case the Jews/Israel were the eventual winners. You would think that they would learn a lesson from this, but apparently not.
But, there are two major differences over time. After 1973 the major Arab States did not participate. In other words, in 33 years no major Arab country has been at war with Israel. Since the 1990s until the present, the main protagonists were the Palestinians themselves. For the first time this year, the war is a proxy war in which Hamas and Hizbollah are agents of outside forces, mainly the Shi'ite fundamentalist regime in Iran and their proxy, Syria. It has been said that Iran gave the orders to initiate these hostilities, and that Syria would fight to the last Lebanese and Iran to the last Lebanese and the last Syrian. That is a major reason there is a difference in support this time swinging away from the Arab side and towards Israel.
Although Hamas is a Sunni Muslim organization, it is a terrorist and fundamentalist one, and is funded and supported, although not totally controlled by, Iran. Nevertheless its leadership in Syria is more influential than that in Gaza. Hizbollah is an integral part of the Shia revolutionary movement. Its relationship to Lebanon as a state is secondary, its main allegiance has been to Iran. The Lebanese Government did not implement UN SC resolution 1559 calling for Hizbollah's disarming, because it was unable to. Hizbollah justifies its existence as a "resistance" organization, meaning resistance to the existence of Israel.
Now there will be two strains of thought in Lebanon, those who will blame Hizbollah for starting this crisis by its attack on Israel and for acting as a surrogate for Iran and Syria, and those who will look at the damage done to Lebanon, including its infrastructure by the IDF, and blame Israel. Given the absence of the usual widespread demonstrations in the Arab world, including Lebanon, it seems that very few Arabs are prepared to come out publicly and support Hizbollah. While they don't like Israel and talk about "civilian casualties" a lot, they don't do so with much conviction. So far there are supposed to be ca. 200 civilian casualties in Lebanon, not a lot given the degree of phsyical destruction. But, since Hizbollah fighters don't wear uniforms they are usually counted as civilians. I challenge any media organization to confidently say how many of the so-called civilian casualties are in fact innocent civilians and how many are Hizbollah combatants. Probably a minority I would guess, and my guess is as good as theirs.
Since this is a war by proxy and Hizbollah has few natural allies, not the Lebanese patriots (Christians, Sunnis and Druse) who are not being targeted by Israel, nor the Sunni Arab regimes (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, etc.) and not the western countries (which they regard as their enemies), that leaves Israel with an advantage to carry out its war of destruction against them without fear of intervention. The only possible allies of Hizbollah, Syria and Iran will not likely intervene on their side, since to do so would invite military reaction not only from Israel, but also from the US. In a sense Israel is acting as a proxy of the US, giving Iran an indirect black eye for its chutzpah.
If the Iranians give Hizbollah the order to fire long-range strategic missiles on central Israel then the conflict would escalate. But, failing that, Israel will get its week or more to continue the process of destroying Hizbollah, and it may be that after that there will be no other proxies of any significance that will readily come forward to challenge Israel.
But, there are two major differences over time. After 1973 the major Arab States did not participate. In other words, in 33 years no major Arab country has been at war with Israel. Since the 1990s until the present, the main protagonists were the Palestinians themselves. For the first time this year, the war is a proxy war in which Hamas and Hizbollah are agents of outside forces, mainly the Shi'ite fundamentalist regime in Iran and their proxy, Syria. It has been said that Iran gave the orders to initiate these hostilities, and that Syria would fight to the last Lebanese and Iran to the last Lebanese and the last Syrian. That is a major reason there is a difference in support this time swinging away from the Arab side and towards Israel.
Although Hamas is a Sunni Muslim organization, it is a terrorist and fundamentalist one, and is funded and supported, although not totally controlled by, Iran. Nevertheless its leadership in Syria is more influential than that in Gaza. Hizbollah is an integral part of the Shia revolutionary movement. Its relationship to Lebanon as a state is secondary, its main allegiance has been to Iran. The Lebanese Government did not implement UN SC resolution 1559 calling for Hizbollah's disarming, because it was unable to. Hizbollah justifies its existence as a "resistance" organization, meaning resistance to the existence of Israel.
Now there will be two strains of thought in Lebanon, those who will blame Hizbollah for starting this crisis by its attack on Israel and for acting as a surrogate for Iran and Syria, and those who will look at the damage done to Lebanon, including its infrastructure by the IDF, and blame Israel. Given the absence of the usual widespread demonstrations in the Arab world, including Lebanon, it seems that very few Arabs are prepared to come out publicly and support Hizbollah. While they don't like Israel and talk about "civilian casualties" a lot, they don't do so with much conviction. So far there are supposed to be ca. 200 civilian casualties in Lebanon, not a lot given the degree of phsyical destruction. But, since Hizbollah fighters don't wear uniforms they are usually counted as civilians. I challenge any media organization to confidently say how many of the so-called civilian casualties are in fact innocent civilians and how many are Hizbollah combatants. Probably a minority I would guess, and my guess is as good as theirs.
Since this is a war by proxy and Hizbollah has few natural allies, not the Lebanese patriots (Christians, Sunnis and Druse) who are not being targeted by Israel, nor the Sunni Arab regimes (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, etc.) and not the western countries (which they regard as their enemies), that leaves Israel with an advantage to carry out its war of destruction against them without fear of intervention. The only possible allies of Hizbollah, Syria and Iran will not likely intervene on their side, since to do so would invite military reaction not only from Israel, but also from the US. In a sense Israel is acting as a proxy of the US, giving Iran an indirect black eye for its chutzpah.
If the Iranians give Hizbollah the order to fire long-range strategic missiles on central Israel then the conflict would escalate. But, failing that, Israel will get its week or more to continue the process of destroying Hizbollah, and it may be that after that there will be no other proxies of any significance that will readily come forward to challenge Israel.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:59 PM
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