Rice's "pudding"
US Secty. of State Rice has announced her much-anticipated trip to the Middle East with her first stop in Egypt on Sunday and then to Israel on Monday. She gave an excellent press conference on Friday and stated the position very clearly. There is no point in trying to force an immediate ceasefire if Hizbollah is left armed on the ground to start another round against Israel and holding Lebanon hostage whenever it chooses to do so. She called such a ceasefire, "a false promise" a return to the status quo ante. She said that there has to be an international force on the ground in S. Lebanon that must be "robust." But, what does that mean and what countries would be prepared to contribute to it? This will be discussed at a conference on the situation in Lebanon in Rome next week. What will be her recipe, what ingredients will go into her "melange" in order to go from intense fighting on the ground to a peaceful Israel and Lebanon with sovereignty extended to the southern border?
The current strong IDF ground "probes" are designed to destroy entrenched bunkers that cannot be destroyed from the air. In the past 10 years and particularly in the past 6 years since Israel withdrew totally from Lebanon, Hizbollah has constructed a maze of underground concrete bunkers, some containing rockets, beneath many Shi'ite villages in south Lebanon. These were constructed in most cases with the active and enthusiastic support of the Lebanese Shia inhabitants. It is perfectly acceptable under the Geneva Conventions for Israel to drop leaflets warning the inhabitants to leave, and then attacking these villages and destroying the bunkers and their contents. The IDF needs to do this in hand-to-hand fighting, although casualties might be high and it takes intense courage to do so. But, the IDF has done this kind of thing before, in 1956 when the Egyptians had a defensive line across northern Sinai, in 1967 in the Golan when the Syrians were well dug in, and in 1982 during the last Lebanon War. But this time the fortifications are much more extensive and improved, and there are fanatical Hizbollah fighters defending them.
Israel has no intention of staying in Lebanon and occupying its territory as it did in 1982. That lead to an 18 year occupation during which Hizbollah was formed and gained strength and the IDF lost a continuing hemorrhage of men. So another force must be found to occupy this territory that will be "robust" enough in its actions to prevent Hizbollah returning, and that will also ensure Lebanese sovereignty to the border. Some might marvel that Israel is intent on rescuing its neighbor from its predicament with Hizbollah, rather than trying to take its territory itself, but Israel has no territorial claim on Lebanon, quite the opposite.
Since the major part of the bombing of south Beirut and transportation and communication facilites has almost been completed in most of Lebanon, Israel is willing to allow humanitarian supplies in to reach the Lebanese population. Note also that most of the areas of Lebanon, including the Christian areas in the north, the Sunni areas in the center, and the Druse areas in the southeast are intact. A French shipment that arrived in Sidon today will be allowed to be offloaded, and in coordination with Israel, international relief agencies will be able to establish corridors to bring in other supplies. There will be no "drastic" humanitarian crisis in Lebanon as the professional humanitarian leaders have been prophesying. Also, the number of people killed, even if it is as reported ca. 360 in 10 days of fighting, is hardly more than the casualties in Iraq in one day, and it would be churlish in the extreme for the British to blame the Israelis for attacking Lebanon when their target is Hizbollah, when they are doing the same thing in Afghanistan, when their target is the Taliban.
So now we are waiting to see what Rice can pull off, will her recipe be a success or will her "pudding" collapse.
The current strong IDF ground "probes" are designed to destroy entrenched bunkers that cannot be destroyed from the air. In the past 10 years and particularly in the past 6 years since Israel withdrew totally from Lebanon, Hizbollah has constructed a maze of underground concrete bunkers, some containing rockets, beneath many Shi'ite villages in south Lebanon. These were constructed in most cases with the active and enthusiastic support of the Lebanese Shia inhabitants. It is perfectly acceptable under the Geneva Conventions for Israel to drop leaflets warning the inhabitants to leave, and then attacking these villages and destroying the bunkers and their contents. The IDF needs to do this in hand-to-hand fighting, although casualties might be high and it takes intense courage to do so. But, the IDF has done this kind of thing before, in 1956 when the Egyptians had a defensive line across northern Sinai, in 1967 in the Golan when the Syrians were well dug in, and in 1982 during the last Lebanon War. But this time the fortifications are much more extensive and improved, and there are fanatical Hizbollah fighters defending them.
Israel has no intention of staying in Lebanon and occupying its territory as it did in 1982. That lead to an 18 year occupation during which Hizbollah was formed and gained strength and the IDF lost a continuing hemorrhage of men. So another force must be found to occupy this territory that will be "robust" enough in its actions to prevent Hizbollah returning, and that will also ensure Lebanese sovereignty to the border. Some might marvel that Israel is intent on rescuing its neighbor from its predicament with Hizbollah, rather than trying to take its territory itself, but Israel has no territorial claim on Lebanon, quite the opposite.
Since the major part of the bombing of south Beirut and transportation and communication facilites has almost been completed in most of Lebanon, Israel is willing to allow humanitarian supplies in to reach the Lebanese population. Note also that most of the areas of Lebanon, including the Christian areas in the north, the Sunni areas in the center, and the Druse areas in the southeast are intact. A French shipment that arrived in Sidon today will be allowed to be offloaded, and in coordination with Israel, international relief agencies will be able to establish corridors to bring in other supplies. There will be no "drastic" humanitarian crisis in Lebanon as the professional humanitarian leaders have been prophesying. Also, the number of people killed, even if it is as reported ca. 360 in 10 days of fighting, is hardly more than the casualties in Iraq in one day, and it would be churlish in the extreme for the British to blame the Israelis for attacking Lebanon when their target is Hizbollah, when they are doing the same thing in Afghanistan, when their target is the Taliban.
So now we are waiting to see what Rice can pull off, will her recipe be a success or will her "pudding" collapse.
posted by Jack Cohen at 10:30 PM
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