Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Stabilization?

Bint Jbail is the major town in south Lebanon from where Hizbollah have organized their military activities against Israel. Heavy fighting is going on now for control of the town. About 100 Hizbollah terrorists are well dug in and the IDF is attacking it mainly from the south, from the village of Maroun al-Ras that was captured yesterday. On Monday twenty IDF soldiers were wounded and 2 were killed and two pilots died in a helicopter crash. About 20 Hizbollah fighters were killed and two were captured.
The reasons the town is so important is that it sits on a hill overlooking the surrounding plain and the only main road in south Lebanon runs from there north and then west to Tyre. The IDF needs to control that road, both to move up it and to ensure that the Hizbollah terrorists don't use it to escape.
At the same time there should be other independent ground operations, one west from Metulla that is at the tip of the Israeli Hula Valley that projects north and is on the same latitude as Tyre, in order to cut off their escape, and one along the coast towards Tyre. If the IDF carries out these operations it can essentially surround, if not totally occupy southern Lebanon, and then hold it for its takeover by an international force that will be decided upon by negotiations.
This area of south Lebanon up to the Litani river, some 20 kms from the Israeli border, is the crucial area that Israel wants free of Hizbollah. The so-called "stabilization force" proposed by PM Blair and UN Secty. Gen. Kofi Annan would supposedly, under agreement with the Lebanese Government, come in and then the IDF would withdraw. But, this force must be more "robust" than the UNIFIL force that has been there for 28 years and done nothing, except perhaps cooperate with Hizbollah. UNIFIL, that was supposed to have been an "interim" force, will likely be disbanded, and the new force will likely be under NATO or EU sponsorship, with orders to shoot if necessary to stop re-infiltration of Hizbollah. Who would compose this force? Not the US or UK, because Hizbollah would fight them. Possibly Turkey (there must be Muslim partners), France (that has a stake in Lebanon), Egypt (if Israel agrees) and possibly Italy. The members must be agreeable to Lebanon, who will take over from them eventually, and Israel who will give up the land to them. But, although Hizbullah must accept the force, it will do so reluctantly and without cooperation.
What is a good measure of the success of the IDF in its war with Hizbollah? Perhaps the number of rockets fired at Israel each day. I wish I could say that these have been reduced in number, but they have not. Monday there were 70 rockets all over northern Israel, although noone was killed, and Sunday there were 125 and two people were killed in Haifa. This is as many rockets as on the first day that they started the bombardment. So the IDF has not yet found how to stop the firing of rockets and has not reduced their supplies enough to lower number of firings. We patiently wait for this to happen or for a ceasefire.
Monday, after her brief visit to Beirut, Condoleeza Rice landed in Israel. Tuesday she will meet with Israeli Govt. leaders, then on Wednesday she will travel to Rome for the meeting of the "Lebanon interest group." Not until after that meeting will the results of her discussions start to become apparent. The IDF has until then to inflict a defeat on Hizbollah in Bint Jbail and elsewhere.

1 Comments:

Blogger Polistra said...

I just want to thank you for your continued reporting and insight.

I learn more from reading Isblog than from any of the news media!

8:18 PM  

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