Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Fatah-Hamas clashes

In the worst clashes so far between armed Fatah and Hamas supporters in Gaza and the West Bank over the past two days 11 people have been killed, including 3 civilians. The clashes erupted into violence when PA Security Forces dominated by Fatah went on strike on Sunday to protest the fact that they haven't been paid by the Hamas Government in months. This results, of course, from the fact that the Hamas PA Government has not received foreign aid because it refuses to accept the conditions of the international community, including the Quartet, that it recognize Israel, stop terrorism and accept past PA agreements with Israel.
The Hamas Minister of Security, Siad Siam, called out his 3,000 Hamas security forces, and they clashed with the Fatah forces, that brought many other Fatah supporters onto the streets. In fierce gunfights, 11 were killed and many injured throughout the PA. As of today an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire is gradually coming into effect, and the Hamas Government has ordered its militia back to its bases. PM Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has accused Pres. Abbas of Fatah of using the unrest as an excuse to carry out a coup against the legally-elected Hamas Government, while Abbas claims that the unrest and instability are cause for declaring a state of emergency and dismissing the Hamas-led Government and replacing it with a Government of "experts." This would enable him to claim that the PA Government now accepts the Quartet's conditions and the PA could then receive the foreign aid it desperately needs. However, it would likely spark a civil war between Hamas and Fatah.
This situation seems to be the belated fulfillment of the wishful policy of former PM Rabin, whose excuse for allowing Yasir Arafat to return to Gaza from exile in Tunisia in 1989 was the expectation that the PLO would "deal with" Hamas, i.e. eliminate them as a threat to its control over the Palestinians. Instead Arafat made common cause with them, allowing them to carry out their campaign of terrorism against Israel, while he pretended that he was a reliable peace partner. Many in the world bought this subterfuge, but eventually the evidence was overwhelming and both Israel and the US refused to deal with Arafat several years before his death. However, although Arafat used Hamas as a means of attacking Israel, he never allowed them to become so strong as to threaten his overall control of the PA.
The US pressure to allow democratic elections, and the splits within Fatah between the old guard and the young leaders, as well as the corruption within Fatah, allowed Hamas to win the elections. Ever since Abbas has been trying to find ways to limit the control of Hamas and/or change their policies, to no avail. Now maybe he is biting the bullet and facing them head on. However, more maneuvering is likely before an all-out civil war ensues. So it appears that Rabin's policy may finally be having its logical outcome, 17 years after it was promulgated, namely that since the Palestinians have no history of democracy, an armed clash between the Fatah/PLO and Hamas is inevitable, and in such a clash Fatah should win, especially in the West Bank where Hamas is weak. But, it is too early to say, and it might lead to a split in the PA, with Fatah controlling the West Bank and Hamas controlling Gaza. The diplomatic view from Israel is that this is an internal PA matter, but the common Israeli view is "let them kill each other."

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