Thursday, September 28, 2006

Subtle dance

In the past few days reports have appeared of a meeting between PM Olmert and Saudi King Abdallah, but these reports have been vehemently denied by both sides. What is one to make of this? Was there a reason why the reports have been appearing now, and equally that the meeting never occurred or if it did occur, it shouldn't have. What is the significance of this subtle dance between the Israeli PM and his mortal enemy, the King of Saudi Arabia (or a "senior Saudi official").
At the beginning of the recent war in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia officially criticized Hizbollah for taking preemptive action and plunging the region into a crisis, without any consultation with the Lebanese Government, and not only that, not with the usual suspects of the anti-Israel coalition, namely the "confrontation" states of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, in other words the Sunni "moderates." This criticism was unpreceedented, and was soon replaced with more congratulatory comments towards Hizbollah, once they were actually in combat with the IDF and once the extent of destruction in Lebanon ("disproportionate") became the media focus. It was clear that this Hizbollah action was dictated from Iran. So for the first time the Arabs were not determining policy of war and peace towards Israel, the inititative has been taken out of their hands by the Shia Muslim non-Arabs, the Iranians.
The Saudis have good reason to fear the power of the Iranian State, that in a way is filling the vacuum left by the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the chaos in Iraq. In effect the Americans did just what the Iranians have been longing for for a long time, they removed their greatest proximal enemy. And with the US bogged down fighting the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran is flexing its muscles. The Saudis and the Egyptians as well as the Gulf Arabs have as much to fear from an Iranian nuclear weapon as does Israel. Perhps more because they have no answer to nuclear blackmail, at least Israel is supposed to have nuclear weapons too, that might deter the Iranian threat to Israel.
The main magnet for Iranian interest/attack on the Gulf Arabs States is oil! In effect Iran is now replacing Iraq under Saddam as the great Middle East power, that is immensely attracted to the oil, not least because it would put them in charge of the destiny of the West. By regulating/stopping the flow of oil to the West from the oilfields and through the Straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the Iranians could weaken the West without actually attacking it militarily, and then when it is weakened by financial chaos, then turn the screws with military and terrorist attacks. There have been reports that the Iranians are training 40,000 young people to send into the West to carry out suicide bombings. They are prepared to kill their own children, as they showed before in the Iraq war, and by the time these children are grown they will be hardened martyrs for the supremacy of Shi'ite Islam.
This scenario is more than idle speculation, it underlies the report that PM Olmert said in an interview with the J'sam Post this week that Pres. Bush is determined that Iran will not get an atomic weapon. Now we know why, and we hope that all reasonable Westerners will see the danger in such a weapon being in the hands of a fundamentalist Islamic Shi'ite State. The future of the Western world depends upon it.

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