Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Syria, Lebanon and Iraq

The Syrians are masters of duplicity. On the same day that the Syrian Foreign Minister signed an agreement to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iraq after 20 years, they assassinated Pierre Gemayel, scion of a well-known anti-Syrian Christian family, in Lebanon.
Gemayel is the fifth anti-Syrian politician assassinated in 2 years and the third member of his family to be assassinated, after his grandfather Pierre, who founded the Christian Phalange Party, and his uncle Bashir, who was assassinated in 1982 following the first Lebanon war. Just when Bashir Gemayel was about to be elected President of Lebanon then he was blown up by a powerful truck bomb, and that changed the whole situation. Bashir was one of the few Lebanese who was prepared to collaborate with Israel. His death caused the Christians to back off and this changed the history of the Middle East.
There is little doubt that this current campaign of messages from Syria, delivered in the form of assassinations (that's how the Syrians negotiate with the Lebanese) results from the "victory" that Hizbollah achieved in the second Lebanon war against Israel. Now they feel powerful enough that they are flexing their muscles. Since Hizbollah is a Syrian and Iranian proxy, this is another attempt by Syria to reassert its control over Lebanon. Remember that Syria does not recognize the existence of Lebanon and they have no diplomatic relations with it, because they regard Lebanon as part of Syria, just as Saddam Huissein considered Kuwait part of Iraq. They are testing the anti-Syrian forces to see if they are prepared to fight the Shi'ites of Hizbollah in another round of the civil war to determine who controls Lebanon - Syria or the anti-Syrians forces.
The assassination of Rafik Hariri, former President of Lebanon, started this crisis, and the assassination of Pierre Gemayel may either expand it or finish it. By withdrawing all Shia support from the Seniora Government and by gradually removing all his Ministers (he now has only a majority of two) the Shia and Syria are hoping to cause its collapse.
Why now? Also yesterday, the UN Security Council passed its final vote to legally establish the judicial enquiry into the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Before the Panel becomes legal in Lebanon it has to be approved by the Seniora Government. That's why last week Sheikh Nasrallah pulled his five representatives from the Cabinet and issued a public call to his followers to be ready at a moment's notice to come out onto the streets and demonstrate against the Seniora Government. However, now after the assassination of Gemayel this is unlikely to happen, because it would be too explosive if the two groups met. However, Nasrallah's position is clear, he is trying to bring down the Seniora Government before they have the opportunity to vote for the UN Hariri Panel of Enquiry which has already announced that high Syrian officials will be called before it under suspicion of having organized that assassination. You have to be a very brave man to vote for this Panel when anyone who does so will immediately be targeted (and is already targeted) as an enemy of Syria. The messages have not stopped coming.
It is noteworthy that at the same time as Syria (and Iran) are exercising their influence over the fate of Lebanon, and trying to bring it entirely into their sphere, the "democratic" Government of Iraq has signed an agreement with the last Ba'ath (Renaissance) Party Government in the Middle East, in Syria. One should remember that Saddam Hussein was the leader of the Ba'ath Party in Iraq, while President Bashar Assad is Head of the Ba'ath Party in Syria. Originally the two Ba'ath Parties had the same origins, since the Party was founded in Lebanon in the 1950's by an Arab Christian, Michel Aflak. After taking over Syria and then Iraq, a dispute developed between Assad and Saddam essentially over who would be predominant and they broke off relations 20 years ago. Now Iraq, with US connivance, has come to terms with the Ba'ath regime of Syria, in the hope that they will use their influence to reduce infiltration of terrorists from Syria into Iraq. The Iraqi Government is also hoping the same thing by meeting with the Iranians. Don't hold your breath! If anything, sensing the weakness of Iraq, whatever the Syrians and Iranians say, they will increase the pressure in order to bring Iraq into their sphere rather than that of the US. The Syrians will try to control the Iraqi Sunnis from the West and the Iranians the Iraqi Shia from the East.
These accomodations of Iraq with Syria and Iran can be seen as the turning point of the Iraq war and of US influence in the Middle East. We would have liked it to be otherwise, but that is the current reality. It coincides with Blair talking appeasement of the Islamist forces and Bush beginning to retract in Iraq.

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