Peace Conference?
Condoleeza Rice is touring the Middle East, bolstering US allies by giving away millions of dollars worth of military aid and issuing tentative invitations to a "Peace Conference" to be organized by the US in the Fall. Seems like a good idea, why not "talk peace."
Her greatest success so far is that the FM of Saudi Arabia said that his country would accept an invitation when it is formally issued. If that happens, then this would be the first time that Israeli and Saudi diplomats actually meet publicly, even though there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries. However, it falls far short of actual Saudi recognition of Israel.
Further, the conditions that the Saudis have placed on their participation are virtually preconditions to a peace agreement, i.e. Israel "must agree" to a "comprehensive solution", they must agree to a solution of the "issues of refugees and al Quds (Jerusalem)" and must "dismember Jewish colonies." On the contrary, Jerusalem believes these core issues should be resolved in bilateral negotiations between Israel and the PA only, according to teh agreed formula of the so-called Road Map. Israel has always feared a multilateral peace conference in which it is outnumbered by all the Arab participants and they agree among themsleves what Israel must accept. This is a prescription for failure. Yet, according to Pres. Bush this was supposed to be a just friendly get-together of US allies opposing the Iranian axis of Syria, Hizbollah and Hamas in Gaza.
At the meeting last night with Condy, FM Tzipi Livni of Israel stated that Israel must not miss this "opportunity." But it takes a strong leader of Israel to go to such a meeting and stand firm in the face of well-organized Arab diplomatic pressure and PR. Very few in Israel think PM Olmert is the man for this job.
The Conference is also meant to bolster Pres. Abbas as the leader of all the Palestinians. Yet, Hamas in Gaza are likely to let their opposition to this be known in various ways. Abbas is also a weak leader. So the combination of weak Palestinian and Israeli leaders is likely to allow the other Arab States more leeway to throw their weight around and decide issues themselves. The US will have to be very firm in the desired outcome to make sure that this Conference doesn't split up in more discord than was the case before the Conference was convened.
Her greatest success so far is that the FM of Saudi Arabia said that his country would accept an invitation when it is formally issued. If that happens, then this would be the first time that Israeli and Saudi diplomats actually meet publicly, even though there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries. However, it falls far short of actual Saudi recognition of Israel.
Further, the conditions that the Saudis have placed on their participation are virtually preconditions to a peace agreement, i.e. Israel "must agree" to a "comprehensive solution", they must agree to a solution of the "issues of refugees and al Quds (Jerusalem)" and must "dismember Jewish colonies." On the contrary, Jerusalem believes these core issues should be resolved in bilateral negotiations between Israel and the PA only, according to teh agreed formula of the so-called Road Map. Israel has always feared a multilateral peace conference in which it is outnumbered by all the Arab participants and they agree among themsleves what Israel must accept. This is a prescription for failure. Yet, according to Pres. Bush this was supposed to be a just friendly get-together of US allies opposing the Iranian axis of Syria, Hizbollah and Hamas in Gaza.
At the meeting last night with Condy, FM Tzipi Livni of Israel stated that Israel must not miss this "opportunity." But it takes a strong leader of Israel to go to such a meeting and stand firm in the face of well-organized Arab diplomatic pressure and PR. Very few in Israel think PM Olmert is the man for this job.
The Conference is also meant to bolster Pres. Abbas as the leader of all the Palestinians. Yet, Hamas in Gaza are likely to let their opposition to this be known in various ways. Abbas is also a weak leader. So the combination of weak Palestinian and Israeli leaders is likely to allow the other Arab States more leeway to throw their weight around and decide issues themselves. The US will have to be very firm in the desired outcome to make sure that this Conference doesn't split up in more discord than was the case before the Conference was convened.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:33 PM
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