The Golden Egg
Israel has a GDP per capita of ca. $30,000 pa and is #22 in the world (depending on whose list you use, I prefer the IMF). There are 4 Arab States (out of 22) that are comparable: Qatar ($33,000 #15), the UAE ($29,000, #24), Bahrain ($23,000, #32) and Kuwait ($20,000, #38). Other lists put Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain considerably higher. And the interesting thing about them is that none of them has a lot of oil. They have managed in a comparatively short period of time to build thriving capitalist centers with large immigrant (non-citizen) populations.
But, they haven't had wars and don't spend ca. 25% of their Govt. expenditures on military expenses like Israel does. It is certain that any hint of a war in their area would cause great financial loss to their precarious positions. They are poised like little jewels between Saudi Arabia, the foremost Sunni Muslim country, and Iran, the foremost Shia Muslim country. Certainly Muslim politics is complex and unpredictable, but the possibility of a major clash between Shia and Sunni cannot be dismissed, especially given the sectarian insurgencies in Iraq and the violence in other parts of the Muslim world, including Lebanon, Syria and Sudan.
Note that the surrounding Arab countries are quite different from Israel, with GDP per capita in Jordan of $5,500 (#100), Egypt of $4,800 (#111), and Syria $4,100 (#116). This certainly amplifies the differences. For comparison, Iran is at #74 with $8,600 pa.
In her visit to the UN, Israeli FM Livni met with her Qatari and other counterparts. It is obvious that Israel and Qatar have a lot in common, apart from their obvious differences. The worst thing for Qatar and the UAE would be any kind of war, particularly any that involves Sunni against Shia. They also fear Iranian expansionism, as expressed by Iranian influence among the Shia population n Lebanon, and in Gaza with Hamas (which although Sunni is supported by Iran).
Although it is not explicitly stated, the Kingdom of Jordan depends on Israeli protection for its existence, particularly in relation to Syria. As time passes, the Saudis and others realize that Iran is more of a threat to them than Israel. Exceptionally, Bahrain, also a small, relatively wealthy Arab Gulf State, is however predominantly (98%) Shia. Nevertheless, although there is a pro-Iranian minority, the ruling Arab family of Bahrain do not want to be dominated by Iran, nor taken over by extremist elements. That is why Bahrain and Qatar have been notably helpful to American forces in the Gulf, including allowing them use of their territories and military cooperation. It seems that the small Arab Gulf States would be natural allies for Israel.
But, they haven't had wars and don't spend ca. 25% of their Govt. expenditures on military expenses like Israel does. It is certain that any hint of a war in their area would cause great financial loss to their precarious positions. They are poised like little jewels between Saudi Arabia, the foremost Sunni Muslim country, and Iran, the foremost Shia Muslim country. Certainly Muslim politics is complex and unpredictable, but the possibility of a major clash between Shia and Sunni cannot be dismissed, especially given the sectarian insurgencies in Iraq and the violence in other parts of the Muslim world, including Lebanon, Syria and Sudan.
Note that the surrounding Arab countries are quite different from Israel, with GDP per capita in Jordan of $5,500 (#100), Egypt of $4,800 (#111), and Syria $4,100 (#116). This certainly amplifies the differences. For comparison, Iran is at #74 with $8,600 pa.
In her visit to the UN, Israeli FM Livni met with her Qatari and other counterparts. It is obvious that Israel and Qatar have a lot in common, apart from their obvious differences. The worst thing for Qatar and the UAE would be any kind of war, particularly any that involves Sunni against Shia. They also fear Iranian expansionism, as expressed by Iranian influence among the Shia population n Lebanon, and in Gaza with Hamas (which although Sunni is supported by Iran).
Although it is not explicitly stated, the Kingdom of Jordan depends on Israeli protection for its existence, particularly in relation to Syria. As time passes, the Saudis and others realize that Iran is more of a threat to them than Israel. Exceptionally, Bahrain, also a small, relatively wealthy Arab Gulf State, is however predominantly (98%) Shia. Nevertheless, although there is a pro-Iranian minority, the ruling Arab family of Bahrain do not want to be dominated by Iran, nor taken over by extremist elements. That is why Bahrain and Qatar have been notably helpful to American forces in the Gulf, including allowing them use of their territories and military cooperation. It seems that the small Arab Gulf States would be natural allies for Israel.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:22 AM
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