Prospects for Obama
Obama proposes "change," but there are two changes that he will have to deal with that will be quite difficult for him, first the economy and second foreign policy.
When Bush introduced the b$700 bail-out of Wall Street, it was against his general conservative philosophy, but he did it because he was persuaded that it was necessary. Obama's first priority is the economy, and what did the market do when he was elected, it continued to slide. Generally this is what always happens when a Democrat is elected because the market expects him to expand Govt. spending on social programs, that is bound to lead to less available credit and increased taxes. Now, Obama said that his program was to increase the tax only on the top 5% of earners, but this includes most large to middle size businesses, and what are they going to do in response, reduce their expenditures by firing employees. So this approach cannot improve the economy. Obama will have to adopt conservative programs, opposite to his liberal preferences, in order to rescue the market. If he doesn't then he will be responsible for any further deterioration of the market after he takes office.
Since Russia has amassed large amounts of cash from sales of its oil and gas, the Russian Govt. is flexing its muscles, as indicated by the recent conflict in Georgia, which can be expected in response to the expansion of the EU and NATO further and further eastwards. If the US is pressured by Russia, and Iran and N. Korea, it will need all the allies it can get. Of course, the first option is to send a carrier task force as an implied threat, as Bush has done in the Persian Gulf. Even though Obama's liberal sympathies may lie with discussing with potential enemies and with the poor Palestinians, when times are uncertain a President must look at the world chessboard and see what pieces he has. Israel is the best and largest "aircraft carrier" that the US has. If push comes to shove, Israel is there to cooperate with the US under any circumstances. The more the Russians threaten and Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons, the more the US will need a strong Israel. No President can ignore this!
It is also true that although Obama has largely adopted the Clinton approach to the Middle East by coopting most of Clinton's former Middle East experts, such as David Ross, Martin Indyk and Daniel Kurtzer, all of whom are Jewish, all of whom cooperated with Arafat and none of whom are fully trusted by the Israeli foreign service. But, since their tenure, Israel withdrew from Gaza, which came under the complete control of Hamas. Notwithstanding endless negotiations between Fatah and Hamas, there is very little likelihood of an accomodation between them, about as much as between Israel and the Palestinians. Before the Israel-Palestinian conflict can be resolved, the intra-Palestinian conflict must be resolved, and it is unlikely that either can be without some major outbreak of violence. Also, Iran is not arming and training its proxies, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, for nothing. Obama wants to withdraw from Iraq and to avoid all foreign conflicts, but reality is a harsh taskmaster and he may find he has no choice.
Note: The above was written before Obama's first press conference on Friday, in which he spoke firmly about Iran. Also, both Ahmedinejad of Iran and Khaled Maashal of Hamas (in Damascus) have since requested direct talks with Obama, that's what you get when your approach is so naieve.
When Bush introduced the b$700 bail-out of Wall Street, it was against his general conservative philosophy, but he did it because he was persuaded that it was necessary. Obama's first priority is the economy, and what did the market do when he was elected, it continued to slide. Generally this is what always happens when a Democrat is elected because the market expects him to expand Govt. spending on social programs, that is bound to lead to less available credit and increased taxes. Now, Obama said that his program was to increase the tax only on the top 5% of earners, but this includes most large to middle size businesses, and what are they going to do in response, reduce their expenditures by firing employees. So this approach cannot improve the economy. Obama will have to adopt conservative programs, opposite to his liberal preferences, in order to rescue the market. If he doesn't then he will be responsible for any further deterioration of the market after he takes office.
Since Russia has amassed large amounts of cash from sales of its oil and gas, the Russian Govt. is flexing its muscles, as indicated by the recent conflict in Georgia, which can be expected in response to the expansion of the EU and NATO further and further eastwards. If the US is pressured by Russia, and Iran and N. Korea, it will need all the allies it can get. Of course, the first option is to send a carrier task force as an implied threat, as Bush has done in the Persian Gulf. Even though Obama's liberal sympathies may lie with discussing with potential enemies and with the poor Palestinians, when times are uncertain a President must look at the world chessboard and see what pieces he has. Israel is the best and largest "aircraft carrier" that the US has. If push comes to shove, Israel is there to cooperate with the US under any circumstances. The more the Russians threaten and Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons, the more the US will need a strong Israel. No President can ignore this!
It is also true that although Obama has largely adopted the Clinton approach to the Middle East by coopting most of Clinton's former Middle East experts, such as David Ross, Martin Indyk and Daniel Kurtzer, all of whom are Jewish, all of whom cooperated with Arafat and none of whom are fully trusted by the Israeli foreign service. But, since their tenure, Israel withdrew from Gaza, which came under the complete control of Hamas. Notwithstanding endless negotiations between Fatah and Hamas, there is very little likelihood of an accomodation between them, about as much as between Israel and the Palestinians. Before the Israel-Palestinian conflict can be resolved, the intra-Palestinian conflict must be resolved, and it is unlikely that either can be without some major outbreak of violence. Also, Iran is not arming and training its proxies, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, for nothing. Obama wants to withdraw from Iraq and to avoid all foreign conflicts, but reality is a harsh taskmaster and he may find he has no choice.
Note: The above was written before Obama's first press conference on Friday, in which he spoke firmly about Iran. Also, both Ahmedinejad of Iran and Khaled Maashal of Hamas (in Damascus) have since requested direct talks with Obama, that's what you get when your approach is so naieve.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:36 PM
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