Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
When does a victorious army immediately turn tail and scuttle away after recording a major victory. When does a defeated army (or militia) declare victory, when objectively it has lost. The answer is when the former is Israel and the latter is Arab.
To deal with the former, the political party of Sharon, Kadima, that brought us the failed disengagement from Gaza in 2005, the botched Second War with Lebanon in 2006, and the current War in Gaza, has done another withdrawal. They have peremptorily withdrawn the IDF from Gaza in what looks like a rout, thus allowing the Hamas to immediately take over again and declare victory. And they have done this within the time declared by the unilateral Hamas ceasefire for the IDF to be withdrawn in one week, and before any arrangements have been made for the control of the crossing points, that everyone declares they want open, and without mentioning of Gilad Schalit, the IDF hostage held by Hamas in Gaza. It may be that not all IDF troops will be withdrawn immediately, but giving up a position like that (as any chess player knows) is tantamout to losing the advantage of control of the ground, the only real negotiating advantage that Israel won.
The Arabs have a strange psychology, don't blame me for this analysis, read the excellent book "The dream palace of the Arabs" by Fuad Ajami, a detailed probe into the psychology and culture of the Arabs. In their culture, wishful thinking becomes reality. If an Arab terrorist fires a missile at an Israeli plane and fires, as far as he is concerned the plane is destroyed, whether or not the missile actually hits the plane. In Lebanon, because Hizbollah managed to survive against the IDF, that was declared a victory, and not just a victory but a "glorious victory." Because Hamas managed to survive against the IDF, that is for them a victory, never mind that southern Lebanon and Gaza in turn were almost completely destroyed by the IAF. And never mind the casualties, because it is all God's plan for eventually destroying "the Jews" (note: the Hamas and Hizbollah terrorists never refer to Israeli fighters, only to Jews).
It may be that the Israeli Govt. has sighed in relief that there were so few Israeli casualties, of the 12 killed, 8 were killed by friendly fire. This is an extraordinarily small number, and the Govt. of PM Olmert doesn't want to take the risk of more Israeli casualties, hence the rapid withdrawal. This small number of IDF casualties and only ca. 1,000 Hamas gunmen killed, backs the claim of the IDF that the Hamas gunmen were mostly hiding among the population. Now they will come out of hiding and march up and down in their black masks and with braggadocio claim victory against the Jews.
It has been argued, by Israeli leftists, that not completely defeating the Arabs is a good strategy, because it gives them the ability to save face and still claim victory and then be able to negotiate peace. This is what happened with Sadat of Egypt. In 1974, when the IDF were 101 km from Cairo, the Israeli Govt stopped them there and set up a tent and negotiated a truce with the Egyptians. Sadat recognized this gesture, the IDF could have gone all the way to Cairo, there was nothing to stop them, but that would have been so catastrophic for Sadat that he would have been hounded from office. By allowing Sadat to tell lies, to declare a victory and then to negotiate, everyone won.
Unfortunately, Hamas is not a regular Sunni Arab regime, it is Islamist, and its raison d'etre is to destroy Israel and kill Jews. It doesn't care how much is destroyed in the process or how many Palestinians are killed, anyway they are all Shahid (martyrs), all that matters is to continue the bloody struggle against the infidel until the end, when Allah will give them the final victory. It is to be hoped that all the smart Western leaders who gathered briefly in Egypt and in Jerusalem yesterday know that Hamas cannot be reconciled with. But, rebuilding Gaza and supplying all the food and supplies that the population needs will be done with alacrity. This will leave Hamas in control of Gaza, to be ready at some point in the future to reinitiate their campaign of destruction against Israel. But, next time they will certainly hesitate before acting.
The war in Gaza has definitely strengthened the right in Israel, namely Bibi Netanyahu of Likud, in the upcoming election. While Tzipi Livni did a reasonable job, and Ehud Barak is credited with revitalizing the IDF for an effective campaign against Hamas, the predictions of Netanyahu, that the IDF would have to be unleashed against Hamas and the need to press the advantage of having conquered most of Gaza, have resounded in Israeli ears. We know that the Gaza campaign should have been waged several years ago, instead of taking this constant barrage of rockets, and we know that Olmert and Livni will "withdraw" in the face of international pressure and leave us back almost where we started. While most Israelis supported the war as a means to stop the rockets and deter Hamas, we also mostly know that Likud would have done it sooner and better.
(I take this title from David Bedein, Israel Resource Center, Sderot).
To deal with the former, the political party of Sharon, Kadima, that brought us the failed disengagement from Gaza in 2005, the botched Second War with Lebanon in 2006, and the current War in Gaza, has done another withdrawal. They have peremptorily withdrawn the IDF from Gaza in what looks like a rout, thus allowing the Hamas to immediately take over again and declare victory. And they have done this within the time declared by the unilateral Hamas ceasefire for the IDF to be withdrawn in one week, and before any arrangements have been made for the control of the crossing points, that everyone declares they want open, and without mentioning of Gilad Schalit, the IDF hostage held by Hamas in Gaza. It may be that not all IDF troops will be withdrawn immediately, but giving up a position like that (as any chess player knows) is tantamout to losing the advantage of control of the ground, the only real negotiating advantage that Israel won.
The Arabs have a strange psychology, don't blame me for this analysis, read the excellent book "The dream palace of the Arabs" by Fuad Ajami, a detailed probe into the psychology and culture of the Arabs. In their culture, wishful thinking becomes reality. If an Arab terrorist fires a missile at an Israeli plane and fires, as far as he is concerned the plane is destroyed, whether or not the missile actually hits the plane. In Lebanon, because Hizbollah managed to survive against the IDF, that was declared a victory, and not just a victory but a "glorious victory." Because Hamas managed to survive against the IDF, that is for them a victory, never mind that southern Lebanon and Gaza in turn were almost completely destroyed by the IAF. And never mind the casualties, because it is all God's plan for eventually destroying "the Jews" (note: the Hamas and Hizbollah terrorists never refer to Israeli fighters, only to Jews).
It may be that the Israeli Govt. has sighed in relief that there were so few Israeli casualties, of the 12 killed, 8 were killed by friendly fire. This is an extraordinarily small number, and the Govt. of PM Olmert doesn't want to take the risk of more Israeli casualties, hence the rapid withdrawal. This small number of IDF casualties and only ca. 1,000 Hamas gunmen killed, backs the claim of the IDF that the Hamas gunmen were mostly hiding among the population. Now they will come out of hiding and march up and down in their black masks and with braggadocio claim victory against the Jews.
It has been argued, by Israeli leftists, that not completely defeating the Arabs is a good strategy, because it gives them the ability to save face and still claim victory and then be able to negotiate peace. This is what happened with Sadat of Egypt. In 1974, when the IDF were 101 km from Cairo, the Israeli Govt stopped them there and set up a tent and negotiated a truce with the Egyptians. Sadat recognized this gesture, the IDF could have gone all the way to Cairo, there was nothing to stop them, but that would have been so catastrophic for Sadat that he would have been hounded from office. By allowing Sadat to tell lies, to declare a victory and then to negotiate, everyone won.
Unfortunately, Hamas is not a regular Sunni Arab regime, it is Islamist, and its raison d'etre is to destroy Israel and kill Jews. It doesn't care how much is destroyed in the process or how many Palestinians are killed, anyway they are all Shahid (martyrs), all that matters is to continue the bloody struggle against the infidel until the end, when Allah will give them the final victory. It is to be hoped that all the smart Western leaders who gathered briefly in Egypt and in Jerusalem yesterday know that Hamas cannot be reconciled with. But, rebuilding Gaza and supplying all the food and supplies that the population needs will be done with alacrity. This will leave Hamas in control of Gaza, to be ready at some point in the future to reinitiate their campaign of destruction against Israel. But, next time they will certainly hesitate before acting.
The war in Gaza has definitely strengthened the right in Israel, namely Bibi Netanyahu of Likud, in the upcoming election. While Tzipi Livni did a reasonable job, and Ehud Barak is credited with revitalizing the IDF for an effective campaign against Hamas, the predictions of Netanyahu, that the IDF would have to be unleashed against Hamas and the need to press the advantage of having conquered most of Gaza, have resounded in Israeli ears. We know that the Gaza campaign should have been waged several years ago, instead of taking this constant barrage of rockets, and we know that Olmert and Livni will "withdraw" in the face of international pressure and leave us back almost where we started. While most Israelis supported the war as a means to stop the rockets and deter Hamas, we also mostly know that Likud would have done it sooner and better.
(I take this title from David Bedein, Israel Resource Center, Sderot).
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:48 PM
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