Sunday, February 15, 2009

Election results

Sky news announced that Israel is in a "crisis" over the election results that puts both Tzipi Livni of Kadima and Bibi Netanyahu of Likud in competition for forming a new Government. I wouldn't put it that direly, since the official period of forming a coalition is still ahead of us. The final election results, including the military votes, have now confirmed that Kadima got 28 seats and Likud 27. But, although Livni offered Netanyahu to join her coalition government, it is now pretty clear that she cannot form a coalition, since the center of gravity of the results is on the right.
Bibi now has the opportunity to form a working coalition, including Israel Beitanu (15) and Shas (11), with which United Torah Judaism (5) has formed a "religious" partnership. However, getting these secular and religious parties in a single coalition will be a juggling act, like squaring the circle. For example, Avigdor Lieberman, the Head of Israel Beitanu, has made two specific conditions for his faction joining a Likud-run coalition, namely the approval of civil marriages and the facilitation of conversions (to Judaism). These are two principal interests of Russian-Israelis who are predominantly secular and who include about 20-30% of non-Jews (in marriages, etc.). However, the religious faction of Shas-UTJ are against any changes in the status quo regarding religious matters, that includes retaining Orthodox control over marriages and conversions.
Other negotiable conditions of Lieberman are his appointment as one of the top Ministers (Defense, Finance or Foreign Affairs) and the retention of Daniel Friedman as Head of the Justice Ministry (since he supports the secular agenda) and a committment to topple Hamas in Gaza. We don't know yet what the religious faction demands of Bibi. But, if he can satisfy both of their opposing needs, as long as they are not intransigent, then he can form a reasonable coalition, since their combined 30 votes brings him to 57. He also needs to include the right-wing parties of Habayit Hayehudi (3) and the National Union (4) for a total coalition of 64, which is quite stable for Israeli Governments (until the far right try to wag the dog's tail).
It is still also possible that Kadima and/or less likely that Labor could join his coalition. If Kadima does so, it will be because he offers the Foreign Ministry portfolio to Livni, and she can continue in her current role. If he offered Barak, Head of Labor, his current Defense portfolio, then Barak might jump at it, but Bibi is not likely to do that, because the people have spoken and they have rejected Labor and Barak. So we are likely to have a fairly strong center-right coalition, and Obama will be dealing with Bibi.
There is also the possibility that Kadima could split between its right wing of former Likudniks who want to go back to Likud and share in the Government, and the former Laborites who want to rejoin Labor and be in the opposition. Anything is now possible.

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