Thursday, May 28, 2009

Tenuous link

What is the connection between a nuclear test in North Korea and a desolate hilltop in Samaria? The answer should be none, but in the minds of some imaginative American politicians there is a connection, although tenuous at best.
Here is the rationalization in their thinking, N. Korea has become a nuclear state that has been cooperating with Iran and Syria to help them develop nuclear weapons and missiles. Under the Bush doctrine of "they're either with us or against us," it was easy to simply identify these nations as "the axis of evil." But, under the Obama doctrine, that distinction is replaced by the belief that we must engage these countries in dialog so that they don't consider the US as an enemy. In order to persuade N. Korea not to continue to develop the atomic bomb nothing much can now be done except use the UN Security council to pass stronger sanctions, and if N. Korea actually attacks S. Korea or Japan, although it is unlikely to do so, then the US is required by treaties to intervene on their side (that means war!).
But, Iran is different, there the Obama Administration detects potential for engagement. In order to persuade Iran not to develop nuclear weapons, further discussions will be attempted, following those that the Europeans tried unsuccessfully for 5 years. In order to get Iran to actually enter discussions with the US, the US wants to show that it is indeed a worthwhile interlocutor for the Iranians. In order to do this, the issue that the Obama Administration has selected to show to Iran that they genuinely seek an accomodation is to pressure Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians. At present the best thing that they think they can obtain Israeli concessions on is a freeze on settlement expansion.
But, in view of the refusal of the Netanyahu Government to accept this concession, i.e. they will not agree to a freeze on "natural growth" of "all settlements," the one issue that they are willing to sacrifice is the so-called "outposts." These are small settlements set up by religious settlers who believe that they have a God-given right to settle anywhere in the "land of Israel." Some of these outposts are illegal in that they have not been given formal Government permission for their establishment. So the Netanyahu Government, with prodding from some coalition members, such as Labor Leader and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, is preparing to sacrifice these outposts for the American President, in order to placate the Palestinians and the Iranians.
But, if any sane person believes that by removing a few Jews from a few desolate hilltops in the West Bank that this will make any difference to the Middle East situation they are deluded.
The Palestinians pressure the Americans to pressure the Israelis all the time, and yet the Americans never pressure the Palestinains to make concessions. The first item in the Road Map (of George Bush) is that the PA cease all terrorism and violence against Israel, but they certainly have not done this. US power would be better applied to pressure the PA to comply, but that would not endear them to the Iranians, so as usual it is Israel that has to give.
But, Pres. Ahmedinejad, the mouthpiece of the Mullahs, has said repeatedly that he intends to "wipe Israel off the map," and if anyone thinks he will be deflected by any talks or the removal of some outposts they are living in cloud-cuckoo land. Not only is it laughable, but it is so evidently stupid. Will N. Korea be stopped by anything less than a massive and realistic threat to destroy the regime? Will Iran be stopped by anything other than a very strong sanctions regime and similar threats. The answer to these questions is a definite "no," yet Obama insists on "playing while Rome burns." Apparently liberals need to learn their lessons the hard way rather than relying on experience.
So actually there is no linkage between N. Korean nuclear tests, Iranian nuclear weapons and Israeli outposts, but in the fevered minds of some members of the Obama Administration this is what passes for policy.

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