Sunday, November 01, 2009

Policy reversal

In a complete reversal of policy, US Secty of State Clinton on arriving in Israel said, "Stopping construction in the settlements has never been a precondition, it has always been an issue within the negotiations," precisely, and exactly what PM Netanyahu has been saying all along. She continued, "what the Prime Minister has offered, a restraint on the policy of settlements...no new starts, is unprecedented." So, Netanyahu toughed it out, and in effect won, he faced down Obama, and now the Obama Administration has backed off and acknowledged that a unilateral total freeze on all Israeli construction in the West Bank is both impractical and unachieveable.
Meanwhile the situation may be considered to have worsened, because Pres. Abbas, assuming that Israel would not be able to withstand the pro-Palestinian pressure of Obama, made the freeze of all settlement activity a precondition to the re-starting of negotiations, and now the rug has been pulled out from under him. He now faces unprecendented pressure from Clinton to drop this precondition and immediately resume negotiations with Israel. It should be noted that in all the years of previous talks the Palestinians never required such a precondition, even as recently as the talks with PM Olmert, the only difference has been the Obama Administration's mistaken policy. After the meeting between Abbas and Clinton yesterday in Abu Dhabi, Abbas's spokesman described their talks as "hard." While Abbas may be forced to drop his precondition, he knows that if he does he will lose more credibility among his constituents, the Palestinian people. He will be seen as bowing to US pressure and in effect to Israeli policy and this would likely hurt him in the forthcoming January PA elections.
It is most likely that Clinton was despatched here to mollify the Israeli people, whose popularity rating of Obama has gone below 5%, and thereby to try to rescue his ratings among American Jews, that has been in steep decline. Of course, this has not only been due to his Middle East policy, but to other domestic issues in which he has been considered unsuccessful, resulting in an across the board loss of ratings. Since Obama is due to speak for the first time before the National Jewish Community Relations Board next week, he probably hopes this reversal of policy will help him gain popularity there. The myth that the Jews control US foreign policy is ridiculous, but the fact that the Jews, like other groups, lobby the government in pursuance of their interests is certainly true, and thank goodness for that.
This reversal to a pragmatic policy in line with previous US positions shows two things, that Obama started out as a novice and made a stupid blunder, and second that he is able to learn from his mistakes. The former does not look good, but the latter at least gives hope for the future.

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