The plot thickens

PM Netanyahu won a crucial vote on Thursday to postpone elections for leadership within the Likud Central Committee for 2 years. The vote was due to come up in a month and there were the usual moves by right wing opponents who oppose any freeze on building in the West Bank or anywhere else to try to oust Netanyahu's supporters. The main culprit is Moshe Feiglin, who established a group within Likud called the Leadership Group that seeks to oust Netanyahu and replace him with a more right wing leadership. In order to avoid a disruptive election now, Netanyahu moved to postpone the vote for 2 years so that it will be after the current period of negotiations with the US and the PA. The vote of the Central Committee was 76% for the postponement, so this is a victory for Netanyahu, showing that the Central Committee of the Likud Party supports him and gives him a mandate to continue in his current policies, both standing firm against major concessions over east Jerusalem, but also showing willingness to negotiate with the PA leadership over the formation of a Palestinian State.

Proximity talks between Israel and the PA are due to start in two weeks according to Secty. of State Clinton, after a meeting by the Arab League this weekend that is expected to approve them. But, at the same time Israel is afraid that the PA is initiating a move in the UN to unilaterally declare a State, by proposing a resolution that would effectively replace UN resolution 242 of 1967 that calls for a negotiated peace between the two sides, now that the Arab/Islamic coalition has an automatic majority. Such a move would negate any negotiations and leave the supposed Palestinian State free to continue hostilities with Israel as well as to enforce a solution to the co-called "refugee problem." If such a move were taken then that would also free Israel to unilaterally annex those areas of the West Bank that it claims. Such a situation could lead to another war that could have serious consequences. At present Pres. Abbas of the PA denies any such intentions, but being forced into talks with Israel and feeling that he is negotiating from a position of weakness and fearing attacks from Hamas, he might feel constrained to take such unilateral action.

While this is going on, another dispute between Israel and the US under Pres. Obama has arisen. During the term of PM Sharon, Israel agreed under pressure from Pres. George Bush to remove 35 so-called outposts, or small unapproved settlements set up by Jewish settlers. Now, with an agreement between Israel and the US for a building freeze on the West Bank, Israel has concluded that the previous agreement has been superseded and so has decided not to remove those outposts already established. The State Department has announced that it considers the previous agreement still in force and demands that Israel dfismantle those settlements. However, the Obama Administration has said that it is not bound by a previous letter of George Bush that accepts that due to the "changed situation" there are some densely Jewish areas of the West Bank that Israel will have the right to retain in any future settlement. So now the Obama Administration want it both ways, to accept some previous agreements under Pres. Bush, but reject others. It is this kind of micro-management of an extremely complex situation by a US President that is bound to lead to untoward consequences and possibly to a worsening of the situation.