Direct talks in Washington

Israel and the Palestinians are due to restart direct negotiations without preconditions in Washington DC on September 2, after a 20 month hiatus, under the auspices of US Pres. Obama. Both Israeli PM Netanyahu, who accepted the invitation immediately, and PA Pres. Abbas, who did so after a meeting of the PLO Executive, will attend. Prior to the actual restart of talks there will be the usual diplomatic niceties, although this time not as in Annapolis with a full-court international conference. The four principals, Obama, Clinton, Netanyahu and Abbas, will meet on September 1 with King Abdullah of Jordan and Pres. Mubarak of Egypt. These meetings are only to satisfy the Arab need to show that they are not excluded from the fate of their Palestinian clients. Quartet representative Tony Blair will also be present to show that the EU, UN and Russia have not been totally excluded. However, after all the pomp of a state dinner, the circumstance of actual negotiations will occur with Netanyahu and Abbas and their teams face to face. Where it will go from there and how the main issues will be tackled is anybody's guess.

There are four main issues, the so called "final status" issues, that must be considered are: borders, security, refugees and Jerusalem. There are also a host of secondary but important issues, including mutual recognition, water distribution, protection of sacred sites and minority rights, stopping of Palestinian incitement, and so on. In many of these issues the two sides have totally opposite views. For example, 1. the Palestinians want a complete freeze of all building on the West Bank, while Netanyahu will accept only a partial freeze (in areas that will be included in the putative Palestinian State); 2. the Pals want all the West Bank, while Israel insists on keeping the densely Jewish populated areas, but will transfer an equal area of land from sovereign Israel; 3. the Pals want at least East Jerusalem, while Israel wants to maintain control of all Jerusalem; 4. the Pals want the "right of return" of what they consider to be "refugees" while Israel denies that they are refugees after several generations and refuses to accept them; 5. Israel wants to be recognized as the "Jewish State" while the Pals want to avoid this; 6. The Pals want a State to be completely free to act, while Israel will insist on its demilitarization (apart from security forces), and so on. Note that most of these issues come down to Palestinian demands, while Israel's requirements are often pushed aside. We hope that won't happen this time as it did in Oslo. Israel must have its security needs met and must have recognition so that there can be "an end of conflict." Only after all the negotiations, if there is an end of conflict agreement, can there be peace and security.

But, this does not include Hamas in Gaza, that controls almost half of the Palestinian people and which immediately rejected the talks. They will not accept any outcome of the talks and may try to derail them with Iranian help. It may be that Israel and/or the PA will eventually have to invade Gaza (again) and remove Hamas from power, so that the Gaza Palestinians can be included in any positive outcome of the talks. But, that depends on the actual outcome of the talks, and don't expect them to be brief and without contentious quarrels. If the two sides can square this circle it will be a miracle.