Sunni-Shia clash
In the turmoil that is going on in the Arab world there are two quite separate processes that we must distinguish. The first is sometimes called "the Arab spring", namely the series of uprisings against aging autocratic rulers, such as Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt, who have already gone, and Gaddafi of Libya and Saleh of Yemen, who are fighting back. The other process, and perhaps the more significant, is the historic clash between Sunni and Shia Arabs, the former supported by Saudi Arabia and the latter by Shia Iran. The focus of this clash is in Bahrain, which constitutes the perfect locus for this clash, because the majority of its population are Shia while the ruling elite is Sunni.
When the mob tried to take over Pearl Square in the middle of Manama a few weeks ago, it seemed just like the other uprisings in Cairo and Behghazi. But, the difference was soon noted. This was not some mere attempt to redress popular sentiment against an autocratic ruler, whatever the legitimate claims of the populace. This was a Shia-Iran inspired attempt to remove the Sunni rulers and replace them with a Shia regime. Not to be neglected is the fact that Bahrain is the center of US forces in the Persian Gulf and the home of the US Fifth Fleet. Bahrain under the Khalifah dynasty has been a friendly base for US interests in the region as a bulwark against Shia Iran. For the Shia to replace the Sunni Khalifas and then be able to expel the US forces would be a coup for Iran of epic proportions. That is why, when things started to unravel in Manama, that Saudi Arabia sent in a large force of its Army in armed troop carriers to assist the Bahraini forces to regain control from the Shia mob. No doubt the US was sufficiently concerned with the situation that they approved this move.
So now the flash point in the whole Sunni-Shia/ Arab/Iranian clash of cultures is in Bahrain. If Bahrain were to go under the Iranian sphere of influence or local hegemony, then this would be a major loss for the Saudis, the Sunnis and the US. So don't be so sympathetic to the revolting masses in every case. Remember that sympathy for those revolting against the Shah of Iran led to the establishment of the Khomeini regime, which was much worse for the Iranians as well as for us. How ever much you believe in the democratic aims of the Egyptian and other Arab masses, in this case the Shia masses are the major enemies of the West, while the Saudi and Bahraini rulers are our allies!
Meanwhile, in Syria, which is a strong ally of Iran, things are heating up. There have been large demonstrations in several Syrian cities, and at least 36 people were killed, mostly shot down by Syrian secret police in civilian clothes. Here the situation is both an uprising against a hated family regime, that of Assad, and the opposite to that in Bahrain, namely a Sunni majority demonstrating against a Shia-type Alawite ruling minority. Here there is no doubt who we should support, the people against Assad and his Iranian allies. Yes, its true, the Middle East is complex and woe to those who simplify it as purely an Israel-Palestinian conflict. Even Quartet representative Tony Blair was forced to admit that the uprisings in the Arab world make the achievement of an Israeli-Arab peace more challenging.
When the mob tried to take over Pearl Square in the middle of Manama a few weeks ago, it seemed just like the other uprisings in Cairo and Behghazi. But, the difference was soon noted. This was not some mere attempt to redress popular sentiment against an autocratic ruler, whatever the legitimate claims of the populace. This was a Shia-Iran inspired attempt to remove the Sunni rulers and replace them with a Shia regime. Not to be neglected is the fact that Bahrain is the center of US forces in the Persian Gulf and the home of the US Fifth Fleet. Bahrain under the Khalifah dynasty has been a friendly base for US interests in the region as a bulwark against Shia Iran. For the Shia to replace the Sunni Khalifas and then be able to expel the US forces would be a coup for Iran of epic proportions. That is why, when things started to unravel in Manama, that Saudi Arabia sent in a large force of its Army in armed troop carriers to assist the Bahraini forces to regain control from the Shia mob. No doubt the US was sufficiently concerned with the situation that they approved this move.
So now the flash point in the whole Sunni-Shia/ Arab/Iranian clash of cultures is in Bahrain. If Bahrain were to go under the Iranian sphere of influence or local hegemony, then this would be a major loss for the Saudis, the Sunnis and the US. So don't be so sympathetic to the revolting masses in every case. Remember that sympathy for those revolting against the Shah of Iran led to the establishment of the Khomeini regime, which was much worse for the Iranians as well as for us. How ever much you believe in the democratic aims of the Egyptian and other Arab masses, in this case the Shia masses are the major enemies of the West, while the Saudi and Bahraini rulers are our allies!
Meanwhile, in Syria, which is a strong ally of Iran, things are heating up. There have been large demonstrations in several Syrian cities, and at least 36 people were killed, mostly shot down by Syrian secret police in civilian clothes. Here the situation is both an uprising against a hated family regime, that of Assad, and the opposite to that in Bahrain, namely a Sunni majority demonstrating against a Shia-type Alawite ruling minority. Here there is no doubt who we should support, the people against Assad and his Iranian allies. Yes, its true, the Middle East is complex and woe to those who simplify it as purely an Israel-Palestinian conflict. Even Quartet representative Tony Blair was forced to admit that the uprisings in the Arab world make the achievement of an Israeli-Arab peace more challenging.
posted by Jack Cohen at 9:19 AM
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