Syria
The President of Syria, Bashar al Assad, gave an unusual speech last night, in which he spoke to his nation which is undergoing uprisings in many areas. His speech was almost a parody of the kind of things that absolute rulers say. He assured his people that the uprisings were caused by "foreign elements" and "Israeli agents." He said the killings were caused by some mysterious forces, but not his secret police or army. It was conspicuous that he did not mention the emergency regulations that have been in effect for 50 years that prevent any form of freedom. He assured his people that he was going to introduce reforms, although there was no detail about what reforms. A spokesman for the opposition said that reforms should not be handed down from above as if they were gifts to the people.
Syria is one of the most complete police states in the world, it is controlled by the Ba'ath Party, the same Party that controlled Iraq under Saddam Hussein. The Ba'ath Party (it means "renaissance") was formed by Christian Lebanese as a kind of Arab fascist party, that appealed to secular Arabs. The uprising shows that even the most brutal dictatorship cannot keep the aspirations of the people down forever. As with the other Arab military dictatorships, Syria has stagnated under emergency regulations for 50 years. But, unlike other Arab countries, there is little chance that Assad and his supporters will give up power without a ruthless crackdown.
Assad comes from the Alawite minority in Syria, that constitute only 12% of the population but control the Army and the State. The majority of Sunni and other minorities, such as Kurds and Druse, are all fed up being controlled by the Alawites. But although Syria is nominally secular, the Alawites are a Shia-type heretical group that have aligned themselves with Shia Iran and the Shia of Hizbollah in Lebanon. It would be almost impossible for them to give up power without some kind of Sunni retaliation against the Alawites. For that reason alone Assad will never give up the reins of power voluntarily. He may adjust the emergency regulations with which he maintians control of Syria, but don't expect him to fade away as Mubarak did in Egypt. He is more likely to take the Gaddafi route and fight to the last Syrian.
Syria is one of the most complete police states in the world, it is controlled by the Ba'ath Party, the same Party that controlled Iraq under Saddam Hussein. The Ba'ath Party (it means "renaissance") was formed by Christian Lebanese as a kind of Arab fascist party, that appealed to secular Arabs. The uprising shows that even the most brutal dictatorship cannot keep the aspirations of the people down forever. As with the other Arab military dictatorships, Syria has stagnated under emergency regulations for 50 years. But, unlike other Arab countries, there is little chance that Assad and his supporters will give up power without a ruthless crackdown.
Assad comes from the Alawite minority in Syria, that constitute only 12% of the population but control the Army and the State. The majority of Sunni and other minorities, such as Kurds and Druse, are all fed up being controlled by the Alawites. But although Syria is nominally secular, the Alawites are a Shia-type heretical group that have aligned themselves with Shia Iran and the Shia of Hizbollah in Lebanon. It would be almost impossible for them to give up power without some kind of Sunni retaliation against the Alawites. For that reason alone Assad will never give up the reins of power voluntarily. He may adjust the emergency regulations with which he maintians control of Syria, but don't expect him to fade away as Mubarak did in Egypt. He is more likely to take the Gaddafi route and fight to the last Syrian.
posted by Jack Cohen at 4:06 PM
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