Monday, October 16, 2006

US elections

What issues are important in the upcoming Nov 7 US elections? In general, the Middle East is important mainly as it affects the question of Iraq. Only Jews and some right wing Christians feel that Israel itself is a significant issue. Otherwise the usual issues are to the fore, corruption in Congress, the economy, the war on terror and the related domestic legislation (the "Patriot Act", etc.). It is these issues that will determine the outcome. With Pres. Bush at a low of ca. 33% approval rating, and a 2:1 majority against him, many are predicting that the Republicans will lose big, and the Democrats will gain. This is especially true since most of the recent scandals, including those of Reps. Mark Foley and Bob Ney, have involved Republicans.
However, two recent events may cause Americans to pause before "throwing out the rascals." The first one is the crisis over the atomic weapons test announced by North Korea. Although the UN Security Council has enacted sanctions against N. Korea tonight, noone really thinks they will have much effect, particularly since communist dictator Kim Jong-Il has allowed his people to starve in large numbers without any apparent concern while pushing forward with his nuclear program. It is noteworthy that the N. Korean delegate to the UN declared these sanctions "an act of war." Would you prefer to have this very dangerous situation presided over by a Democrat or a Republican?
The other truly treacherous situation is Iraq. Pres. Bush has made it clear that he will not "cut and run" as he describes the Democratic attitude towards the ongoing war in Iraq. But, even if Iraq is on the verge of breaking up and separating into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions, which might be better in the long run anyway, that doesn't mean that US forces should not remain stationed there. The fact of Iraq is inextricably related to the situation in Iran. Not only the question of the nuclear weapons program of Iran, that is also soon coming up for consideration in the UN Security Council, but also the future of the regime itself. If a Shia Arab region of Iraq were to join together with Iran, this would be a major danger to the future stability of the Middle East and of the world, particularly as far as oil supplies and atomic weapons threats are concerned. Having US forces on hand to play a role in preventing this may become crucial. Certainly it is preferable, all other things being equal, not to have US forces in danger and taking casualties, but what are the forces for, to protect and defend the USA, and they can do that a lot better being close to where the action is than being withdrawn into safe havens in the US. I agree with Pres. Bush, that if the US and the West do not fight the terrorists there, then their main benefactors, Syria and Iran, will send them over to the US. It's your choice!

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