Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Yisrael Beiteinu

Yisrael Beiteinu is a relatively new party, founded during the previous Knesset by Avigdor Lieberman and a few others as an offshoot of Natan Sharansky's Yisrael b'aliyah party. Lieberman is either a very shrewd or a very ambitious politician, depending on your outlook. He was to the right of Sharansky and wanted to be independent, so he set up Yisrael Beteinu, which means "Israel our home."
He successfully obtained 11 mandates during the last election by capturing a lot of the Russian vote. He has shown the usual politician's tendency of wanting to be in government, irrespective of political considerations. However, he refused to join the government of Ehud Olmert because he is against any form of disengagement or realignment. Now that the realignment plan has been shelved by Olmert due to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, discussions between Olmert and Lieberman have suddenly been resumed. Ironically at the same time Sharansky has announced that he is going to resign from the Knesset, thus bringing to an end his political career. So while Lieberman goes up, Sharansky goes out.
Olmert is in a difficult situation, since he does not hold a clear majority on many votes, and having YB in his coaltion would make his Government more secure. But, his agreement with Lieberman will contradict some of his agreements with the other coalition partners, and might trigger them to quit, causing his government to collapse.
Naturally the possibility of Lieberman joining the Olmert coaltion has upset Olmert's Labor allies, since Lieberman is also against removing any of the settlements from the West Bank, including the so-called "outposts" which are small, unauthorized settlements. This is contrary to Labor policy, and Defense Minister Peretz, leader of the Labor Party faces a difficult situation, either leaving his exalted position over a matter of principle, or losing his place as effective leader of his Party.
But, it is not as simple as that. Since Lieberman is conscious of representing the Russians, who are predominantly secular (i.e. non-religious) he insists on introducing secular marriage into Israel. This has the religious parties, and especially Shas, the sephardic religious party, very much concerned about his joining the coalition. Yesterday, Lieberman met with Eli Yishai the leader of Shas while both were holidaying in the north, and apparently the meeting went well. They both have the distinction of having small right wing parties based on ethnic support, and are not competing for the same voters.
Another of Lieberman's conditions for joing the coalition is electoral reform. Many agree with him that this is necessary, because the current proportional representation system copied from the French does not give direct representation to citizens, but makes the parties predominant. However, Lieberman's preference for a Presidential system may be unrealistic, sicne it was tried before in Israel and failed. Nevertheless, Olmert may well go along with Lieberman in order to get him into the coalition.
So if the circle can be squared, all members of the coalition will bite their tongues, make the best of it, and go on to a stronger, stabler Olmert Government. Or it may be a cobbled together coalition of left and right that might not last very long, and might soon give Likud and Benjamin Netanyahu the opening he is waiting for.

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