Intelligence
The intelligence chiefs gave their annual (secret) testimony to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Monday, and guess what, they confirmed that Iran is the greatest threat to Israel!
They estimated that Iran will not become nuclear capable until 2009-2010. Great, that's in a year! But, while they were giving their estimate, Pres. Peres, visiting Pres. Sarkozy in France, said on his arrival that Israel will not unilaterally attack Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities. But, as one commentator said on the TV news, that's what you would expect him to say in any case. On the other hand, the general security view is that Iran is too large and complex for Israel to attack alone. The best hope is that the new sanctions passed by the UN Security Council will start to work, or that there will be a turnover of the Government in Iran to a less belligerant one. Noone expects any other combination of countries, including the US, to take decisive military action.
The assessment of the experts was that Israel faces increased threats on all fronts. While there is currently a "lull" in the number of rockets being fired into Israel from Gaza, only one a day, way down from the ca. 50 a day of last week, noone is prepared to admit that there is any ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Today Defense Minister Barak strongly denied it. The likelihood is that Hamas is licking its wounds and recovering from the drubbing that it received at the hands of the IDF in Operation Warm Winter last week, and is preparing itself for the next round. Hamas admitted this week that their operatives are trained in Syria and Iran, with the best of them going to Iran for advanced military training. This supports their claim that they scored a victory in the recent confrontation with Israel (they must justify this expensive training). But, the intelligence experts conclude that Hamas is building an army in Gaza with the sole purpose of attacking Israel, and this army will be ready soon. The implication being that every day that Israel waits, the situation will deteriorate, just as it did in the 5 years that Israel left Hizbollah build its forces in south Lebanon, in the opinion of the Winograd Committee.
Israel complained to the Security Council, considering the implementation of Resolution 1701 ending the Second Lebanon War, that Hizbollah is building up its forces once again in the region of south Lebanon patrolled by the UNIFIL forces. The UN Secty. General Moon was tasked to send a delegation there to assess the extent of this build-up that is contrary to the SC Resolution.
The intelligence assessment was that the situation in Gaza and Lebanon is that aggressive Islamist forces with Iranian funding and training are preparing for the next round of war against Israel.
They estimated that Iran will not become nuclear capable until 2009-2010. Great, that's in a year! But, while they were giving their estimate, Pres. Peres, visiting Pres. Sarkozy in France, said on his arrival that Israel will not unilaterally attack Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities. But, as one commentator said on the TV news, that's what you would expect him to say in any case. On the other hand, the general security view is that Iran is too large and complex for Israel to attack alone. The best hope is that the new sanctions passed by the UN Security Council will start to work, or that there will be a turnover of the Government in Iran to a less belligerant one. Noone expects any other combination of countries, including the US, to take decisive military action.
The assessment of the experts was that Israel faces increased threats on all fronts. While there is currently a "lull" in the number of rockets being fired into Israel from Gaza, only one a day, way down from the ca. 50 a day of last week, noone is prepared to admit that there is any ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Today Defense Minister Barak strongly denied it. The likelihood is that Hamas is licking its wounds and recovering from the drubbing that it received at the hands of the IDF in Operation Warm Winter last week, and is preparing itself for the next round. Hamas admitted this week that their operatives are trained in Syria and Iran, with the best of them going to Iran for advanced military training. This supports their claim that they scored a victory in the recent confrontation with Israel (they must justify this expensive training). But, the intelligence experts conclude that Hamas is building an army in Gaza with the sole purpose of attacking Israel, and this army will be ready soon. The implication being that every day that Israel waits, the situation will deteriorate, just as it did in the 5 years that Israel left Hizbollah build its forces in south Lebanon, in the opinion of the Winograd Committee.
Israel complained to the Security Council, considering the implementation of Resolution 1701 ending the Second Lebanon War, that Hizbollah is building up its forces once again in the region of south Lebanon patrolled by the UNIFIL forces. The UN Secty. General Moon was tasked to send a delegation there to assess the extent of this build-up that is contrary to the SC Resolution.
The intelligence assessment was that the situation in Gaza and Lebanon is that aggressive Islamist forces with Iranian funding and training are preparing for the next round of war against Israel.
posted by Jack Cohen at 2:16 PM
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