Syrian mobilization
The headlines in today's Israeli newspapers are full of the mobilization of Syrian troops along the Syrian border with Israel. Superficially this looks like a threatening situation, particularly since such mobilizations have lead to unfortunate violent incidents and wars in the past.
It is thought that the reason for the Syrian mobilization is the ending of the 40 day period of mourning for Imad Mugniyeh, the former head of the Hizbollah military section, who was assassinated by a car bomb in Damascus. The Syrian police report on the assassination is due to be released soon, and it is also thought that it will (naturally) blame Israel for his death, even though Israel (of course) denies this (it should be noted that car bombs are not the usual means used by Israeli agencies). Anyway, the threat of Hizbollah retaliation will be increased by the issuing of this report, although it may also blame Arab sources.
The fear apparently in Syria is that if Hizbollah acts, then Israel might retaliate not only against Hizbollah in Lebanon, but also against Syria, which supports Hizbollah. So Syria has moved thousands of its troops to the border area on the Golan Heights as a threat to Israel. As a result, the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has cancelled his visit next week to Germany, in order to be here in case of emergency. Even though Barak is not the best person to be in this position, he is at least a seasoned military man, having been Chief of Staff, and is certainly much more trusted than his predecessor Amir Peretz who was a complete failure as Defense Minister (yesterday Peretz attacked Barak in a Labor Party meeting and then said that Israel should release Marwan Barghouti from jail and negotiate with Hamas).
In response to the Syrian mobilization, Israel has announced that it has no intention of attacking Syria and that there is no reason for such a mobilization. However, as the degree of distrust is so high and there is an irrational element here that could lead to mistakes being made, Israeli forces are also on the alert. Syria might also be motivated by revenge for the IAF attack on its nascent nuclear power plant in northern Syria last year.
Commentators think that it is quite unlikely that either Hizbollah or Syria will make any active moves. Nasrallah, although he needs to recoup his credibility after his "victory" against Israel in 2006 in which a large portion of Hizbollah's infrastructure and materiel was destroyed, is still rebuilding Hizbollah (with Iranian support) and may be reluctant to re-engage Israel so soon. And Syria, unless it knows something that the rest of us do not, has already supposedly warned Hizbollah against taking any reckless action against Israel. So we hope that this mobilization in Syria will be just a temporary thing and will pass without incident.
It is thought that the reason for the Syrian mobilization is the ending of the 40 day period of mourning for Imad Mugniyeh, the former head of the Hizbollah military section, who was assassinated by a car bomb in Damascus. The Syrian police report on the assassination is due to be released soon, and it is also thought that it will (naturally) blame Israel for his death, even though Israel (of course) denies this (it should be noted that car bombs are not the usual means used by Israeli agencies). Anyway, the threat of Hizbollah retaliation will be increased by the issuing of this report, although it may also blame Arab sources.
The fear apparently in Syria is that if Hizbollah acts, then Israel might retaliate not only against Hizbollah in Lebanon, but also against Syria, which supports Hizbollah. So Syria has moved thousands of its troops to the border area on the Golan Heights as a threat to Israel. As a result, the Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has cancelled his visit next week to Germany, in order to be here in case of emergency. Even though Barak is not the best person to be in this position, he is at least a seasoned military man, having been Chief of Staff, and is certainly much more trusted than his predecessor Amir Peretz who was a complete failure as Defense Minister (yesterday Peretz attacked Barak in a Labor Party meeting and then said that Israel should release Marwan Barghouti from jail and negotiate with Hamas).
In response to the Syrian mobilization, Israel has announced that it has no intention of attacking Syria and that there is no reason for such a mobilization. However, as the degree of distrust is so high and there is an irrational element here that could lead to mistakes being made, Israeli forces are also on the alert. Syria might also be motivated by revenge for the IAF attack on its nascent nuclear power plant in northern Syria last year.
Commentators think that it is quite unlikely that either Hizbollah or Syria will make any active moves. Nasrallah, although he needs to recoup his credibility after his "victory" against Israel in 2006 in which a large portion of Hizbollah's infrastructure and materiel was destroyed, is still rebuilding Hizbollah (with Iranian support) and may be reluctant to re-engage Israel so soon. And Syria, unless it knows something that the rest of us do not, has already supposedly warned Hizbollah against taking any reckless action against Israel. So we hope that this mobilization in Syria will be just a temporary thing and will pass without incident.
posted by Jack Cohen at 5:45 PM
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