The Conqueror
Last week the Iranian regime announced three new weapons systems, an upgraded third-generation missile the Fateh-110 ("Conqueror"), a fast missile boat and a rocket drone that can fire a rocket at any target anywhere. One interpretation of why they have brought out these weapons systems at this time is that they are feeling nervous. Since the Bushehr nuclear reactor began operation last week with enriched nuclear materials supplied by Russia, these demonstrations of weapons are intended to frighten any potential enemy (Israel and/or the US) that Iran is ready and means business. Israeli analysts dismissed these weapons systems as more PR, as more posturing by Ahmedinejad and the Revolutionary Guard to impress themselves, since all the systems are merely variations on known weapons that Iran has.
At the same time Iran issued a statement to the Emir of Kuwait, assuring him that these weapons systems were no threat to Kuwait, and expressing the hope that should Iran be attacked by "western forces" that Kuwait and the other Gulf Atrab States would side with Iran. Fat chance of that!
At the same time the UN issued a statement that Iran is ca. 2-3 years away from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This is roughly consistent with the US position, but a bit longer than the Israeli one that estimates only 1 year. However, these estimates have often changed with time. The possibility of Israel attacking Iran over Bushehr is unlikely, because this is truly an electricity generation plant, and the Russians have not only guaranteed that Iran will return the spent fuel rods (that could be used to obtain plutonium) to them, but also since Russia is intimately involved, Israel would not want to attack a site where many Russians are working. It is more likely that Israel would wait until a purely Iranian (secret) site is close to attaining the desired level of uranium enrichment, and then attack that. But, any such attack is fraught with danger for Israel and so no attack will happen unless the ultimate danger looms. Until then everyone will adhere to the hope that sanctions will work, or regime change can take place.
At the same time Iran issued a statement to the Emir of Kuwait, assuring him that these weapons systems were no threat to Kuwait, and expressing the hope that should Iran be attacked by "western forces" that Kuwait and the other Gulf Atrab States would side with Iran. Fat chance of that!
At the same time the UN issued a statement that Iran is ca. 2-3 years away from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This is roughly consistent with the US position, but a bit longer than the Israeli one that estimates only 1 year. However, these estimates have often changed with time. The possibility of Israel attacking Iran over Bushehr is unlikely, because this is truly an electricity generation plant, and the Russians have not only guaranteed that Iran will return the spent fuel rods (that could be used to obtain plutonium) to them, but also since Russia is intimately involved, Israel would not want to attack a site where many Russians are working. It is more likely that Israel would wait until a purely Iranian (secret) site is close to attaining the desired level of uranium enrichment, and then attack that. But, any such attack is fraught with danger for Israel and so no attack will happen unless the ultimate danger looms. Until then everyone will adhere to the hope that sanctions will work, or regime change can take place.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:40 PM
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