Tuesday, August 31, 2010

US First Fleet

Now that the US has for all intents and purposes withdrawn from Iraq and is in no position to significantly influence events there, all eyes turn to Afghanistan. There the US under Obama is supposed to be carrying out the good fight to destroy al Qaeda and their protectors the Taliban. But, this war isn't going so well and with the number of troops there it is unlikely that the Allies can effectively defeat the Taliban forces. Since they know that under Obama the American people have chosen to retreat from Iraq, and will ultimately do the same in Afghanistan, an even more difficult country to pacify, all the Taliban forces have to do is wait their turn. The Islamists defeated the Soviet forces in Afghanistan and the US has a history of retreating from conflicts, for example Vietnam in the 1970's (50,000 dead, but we could have won), Lebanon in the 1980's (the Marine barracks bombing, 241 killed), Somalia in the 1990's (18 killed, remember " Blackhawk down"), and now Iraq. If you were the Taliban commander what would you do? You would keep up the pressure to ensure continuing US and British military casualties, but wait until they leave in order to make a major attack to take over the government.

It should be apparent to any US military advisor that the US has no firm friends among the Muslim countries, none that can be relied upon, even those that are protected by US power (Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Egypt, Jordan, etc.). They will always vacillate in their support for the US, due to their internal opposition, that often hates the US, as well as the pressure of their fellow Muslim States (such as the OIC). In this respect the Palestinians are no different, they will never whole-heartedly support any US initiative, even of Pres. Obama, their best friend so far in the US.

Lately I have seen articles that purport to be evaluations of Israel's strategic cost and value to the US. In many cases the result is negative, since the US purportedly gives billions of dollars to Israel, and what does it get in return? Although Israel is the best ally the US has in the world according to UN votes, still its support for Israel costs the US in support among the Muslim states. But, this lack of support is endemic and has little to do with any alliance between Israel and the US. In fact, if push comes to shove, say an all out war between the US and N. Korea, or between the US and Iran, who ya gonna call? Israel is America's one permanent anchored aircraft carrier, its First Fleet.

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